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导读:本文是美国政府2025年12月发布的《国家安全战略》报告的中文编译全文,转载于“礼士蛮”公众号发布的内容。另附英文原文供行业人士参考。
一、引言 —— 美国战略的核心要义是什么?
1. 美国 “战略” 如何偏离正轨
为确保美国在未来数十年内继续保持世界最强、最富有、最具影响力和最成功的国家地位,我国需要一套连贯、聚焦的全球互动战略。要实现这一目标,所有美国人都必须明确我们的核心任务及其背后的逻辑。
“战略” 是一份具体、务实的计划,阐明目标与手段之间的本质联系:它始于对 “期望成果” 和 “可动用 / 可实际构建的工具” 的准确评估,最终指向既定目标的实现。
战略必须包含评估、筛选和优先级排序。无论其他国家、地区、议题或事业多么有价值,都不可能全部成为美国战略的核心焦点。外交政策的根本目的是维护核心国家利益 —— 这也是本战略的唯一核心。
冷战结束以来,美国的各项战略均未能达到预期:它们要么是罗列愿望清单或理想状态,要么是用模糊的陈词滥调替代明确诉求,且常常误判了美国真正应追求的目标。
冷战结束后,美国外交政策精英们坚信,美国对全球的永久主导符合国家最佳利益。然而,只有当其他国家的行为直接威胁到美国利益时,其事务才与我们相关。
这些精英严重误判了美国民众承担全球负担的意愿 —— 美国人民看不到这些负担与国家利益的关联;他们高估了美国同时支撑庞大福利 - 监管 - 行政体系与大规模军事、外交、情报及对外援助复合体的财力;他们对全球化和所谓 “自由贸易” 做出了极具误导性且破坏性的押注,导致支撑美国经济和军事优势的中产阶级与工业基础被掏空;他们允许盟友和伙伴将国防成本转嫁给美国人民,有时甚至将我们卷入与其核心利益密切相关、却与美国利益无足轻重或毫不相干的冲突与争议中;他们还将美国政策与一系列国际机构绑定,其中部分机构受公然反美势力驱动,更多机构则秉持跨国主义理念,明确寻求削弱主权国家的独立性。总而言之,美国精英不仅追求了一个根本不可取且无法实现的目标,更在这一过程中破坏了实现任何目标的必要基础 —— 即支撑美国力量、财富与文明的国家特质。
2. 特朗普总统必要且受欢迎的修正举措
上述困境并非不可避免。特朗普总统的第一届政府已证明,只要领导层做出正确决策,所有问题本可 —— 且应当 —— 避免,同时还能取得更多成就。他和他的团队成功调动美国的巨大优势,扭转了战略方向,为美国开启了新的黄金时代。特朗普总统第二届政府及本战略文件的核心目标,就是让美国继续沿着这一正确道路前进。
当前我们面临的关键问题是:1)美国应追求什么?2)我们有哪些可用资源?3)如何将目标与手段结合,形成可行的国家安全战略?
二、美国的核心诉求是什么?
1. 整体目标是什么?
首先且最重要的是,我们希望美国作为独立主权共和国持续存续与安全,其政府保障公民天赋的自然权利,并将公民的福祉与利益置于首位。
我们致力于保护美国的国家本体、人民、领土、经济及生活方式,使其免受军事攻击和外国敌对势力影响 —— 包括间谍活动、掠夺性贸易行为、毒品与人口贩运、破坏性宣传与影响力行动、文化颠覆及其他任何国家安全威胁。
我们要求完全掌控边境、移民体系以及人员(合法与非法)进入美国的交通网络。我们希望建立一个不仅 “有序移民”,更能让主权国家合作阻止而非助长破坏性人口流动的世界,每个国家都有权完全决定接纳或拒绝哪些人入境。
我们需要具备韧性的国家基础设施,能够抵御自然灾害、防范外国威胁,并预防或减轻可能伤害美国人民、扰乱美国经济的各类事件。任何对手或危险都不应能对美国构成实质性威胁。
我们致力于招募、训练、装备并部署世界上最强大、最具杀伤力且技术最先进的军队,以保护国家利益、威慑战争,必要时以最小伤亡快速果断地赢得战争。我们希望每一名军人都为国家感到自豪,并对自身使命充满信心。
我们寻求拥有世界上最强大、可信且现代化的核威慑力量,以及下一代导弹防御系统 —— 包括为美国本土打造的 “黄金穹顶” 防御体系 —— 以保护美国人民、海外资产及盟友安全。
我们致力于打造世界上最强大、最具活力、最具创新力和最先进的经济体。美国经济是美国生活方式的基石,它承诺并实现广泛共享的繁荣,创造向上流动的机会,并奖励辛勤工作。
同时,美国经济也是我们全球地位的基础和军事力量的必要支撑。我们需要世界上最强大的工业基础。美国的国家力量依赖于能够满足和平时期与战争时期生产需求的强大工业部门,这不仅包括直接的国防工业生产能力,还涵盖国防相关产业的生产能力。培育美国工业实力必须成为国家经济政策的最高优先事项。我们致力于发展世界上最强大、最高效、最具创新力的能源部门 —— 它不仅能为美国经济增长提供动力,更能成为美国领先的出口产业之一。
我们希望继续保持世界上科技最先进、最具创新力的国家地位,并在此基础上持续巩固优势。我们将保护知识产权免受外国窃取。美国的开拓精神是我们持续保持经济主导地位和军事优势的关键支柱,必须予以维护。
我们将通过无与伦比的 “软实力” 在全球施加积极影响,推动国家利益实现。在此过程中,我们将毫无歉意地捍卫美国的历史与现状,同时尊重其他国家不同的宗教、文化和治理体系。只有当我们坚信美国本质的伟大与正义时,服务于美国真正国家利益的 “软实力” 才能发挥实效。
最后,我们致力于恢复和重振美国的精神与文化健康 —— 这是长期安全的根本前提。我们希望美国珍视自身的历史荣耀与英雄人物,并展望新的黄金时代。我们希望美国人民自豪、幸福、乐观,坚信他们留给下一代的国家将比自己接手时更美好。我们希望公民都能获得有意义的工作 —— 无人被边缘化 —— 并为自己的工作对国家繁荣及个人与家庭福祉的重要性感到满足。要实现这一点,必须有越来越多稳固的传统家庭培养健康的下一代。
2. 我们在世界中追求什么、希望从世界获得什么?
实现上述目标需要调动美国国家力量的所有资源。而本战略的核心聚焦于外交政策。美国的核心外交利益是什么?我们在世界中追求什么、希望从世界获得什么?
我们希望西半球保持适度稳定与良好治理,以预防和遏制大规模移民潮涌入美国;我们希望该地区各国政府与我们合作打击毒品恐怖分子、犯罪集团及其他跨国犯罪组织;我们希望西半球摆脱外国敌对势力的入侵或对关键资产的控制,并支持关键供应链安全;我们希望确保美国持续享有对关键战略要地的使用权。换句话说,我们将主张并执行 “门罗主义的特朗普推论”;
我们希望遏制并扭转外国行为体对美国经济造成的持续损害,同时维护印太地区的自由开放,保障所有关键航道的航行自由,并维持安全可靠的供应链及关键物资获取渠道;我们希望支持盟友维护欧洲的自由与安全,同时帮助欧洲恢复文明自信与西方认同;
我们希望阻止敌对势力主导中东地区、其油气资源及相关运输要道,同时避免陷入使我们在该地区付出巨大代价的 “永久战争”;
我们希望确保美国技术与标准 —— 特别是在人工智能、生物技术和量子计算领域 —— 引领世界发展。这些是美国核心且至关重要的国家利益。尽管我们还有其他利益诉求,但上述目标必须优先关注,忽视它们将给美国带来巨大风险。
三、美国实现目标可动用的资源有哪些?
美国依然拥有世界上最令人羡慕的地位,具备全球领先的资产、资源和优势,包括:
仍具灵活性、可及时调整方向的政治体系;
世界上规模最大、最具创新力的经济体 —— 既能创造可投入战略利益的财富,又能对希望进入美国市场的国家形成杠杆作用;
世界领先的金融体系和资本市场,包括美元的全球储备货币地位;
世界上最先进、最具创新力和盈利能力的技术部门 —— 支撑经济发展、赋予军事质量优势、增强全球影响力;
世界上最强大、最具战斗力的军队;
广泛的联盟网络,在全球最具战略重要性的地区拥有条约盟友和合作伙伴;
优越的地理环境与丰富的自然资源,西半球无压倒性竞争势力,边境无军事入侵风险,与其他大国被广阔海洋隔开;
无与伦比的 “软实力” 和文化影响力;
美国人民的勇气、意志力和爱国精神。此外,通过特朗普总统强有力的国内议程,美国正:
重新树立胜任文化,根除所谓 “多元化、公平与包容”(DEI)及其他歧视性、反竞争做法 —— 这些做法损害了美国机构的效能并阻碍国家发展;
将释放巨大能源生产能力作为战略优先事项,以推动增长与创新,并巩固和重建中产阶级;
推动经济再工业化,进一步支持中产阶级,掌控自身供应链和生产能力;
通过历史性减税和放松监管,恢复公民的经济自由,使美国成为全球首选的经商和投资目的地;
投资新兴技术和基础科学,确保美国未来世代的持续繁荣、竞争优势和军事主导地位。本战略的目标是整合所有这些全球领先的资产及其他资源,增强美国的力量与优势,使美国变得比以往任何时候都更加强大。
四、战略
1. 原则
特朗普总统的外交政策务实而非 “实用主义”、现实而非 “现实主义”、有原则而非 “理想主义”、强硬而非 “鹰派”、克制而非 “鸽派”。它不植根于传统的政治意识形态,其核心驱动力是 “对美国有效”—— 简而言之,“美国优先”。
特朗普总统已确立了 “和平总统” 的历史遗产。除第一任期内通过历史性的《亚伯拉罕协议》取得显著成就外,他在第二任期仅八个月内就凭借卓越的谈判能力,促成了全球八场冲突的空前和平。他促成柬埔寨与泰国、科索沃与塞尔维亚、刚果(金)与卢旺达、巴基斯坦与印度、以色列与伊朗、埃及与埃塞俄比亚、亚美尼亚与阿塞拜疆达成和平协议,并结束了加沙战争,让所有幸存人质重返家园。
在地区冲突升级为拖累整个大陆的全球战争之前予以制止,值得总司令高度关注,也是本届政府的优先事项。一个战火纷飞、战争蔓延至美国本土的世界,不符合美国利益。
特朗普总统运用非传统外交、美国军事力量和经济杠杆,精准化解核国家间的分歧及由数百年仇恨引发的暴力冲突。特朗普总统已证明,美国的外交、国防和情报政策必须遵循以下基本原则:
明确界定国家利益 —— 至少自冷战结束以来,历届政府发布的国家安全战略往往试图扩大 “国家利益” 的定义,几乎将所有议题和事务都纳入其中。但面面俱到等同于毫无焦点。美国的国家安全战略应聚焦于核心国家利益。
以实力求和平 —— 实力是最佳威慑。若国家或其他行为体充分认识到威胁美国利益的严重后果,便不敢轻举妄动。此外,实力有助于实现和平,因为尊重美国力量的各方往往会寻求美国的帮助,并愿意接受美国为解决冲突、维护和平所做的努力。因此,美国必须保持最强劲的经济、发展最先进的技术、巩固社会文化健康,并部署世界上最具战斗力的军队。
倾向于不干涉主义 ——《独立宣言》中,美国开国元勋明确表达了不干涉他国内政的立场,其核心依据是:正如所有人都享有天赋的平等自然权利一样,所有国家都有权依据 “自然法则和造物主的意志”,拥有 “平等且独立的地位”。对于利益广泛多样的美国而言,严格恪守不干涉主义并不现实,但这一倾向应成为判断干预是否正当的高标准。
灵活现实主义 —— 美国在与他国交往时,应现实看待可行与可取的目标。我们寻求与世界各国建立良好关系和和平的商业往来,不将与他国传统和历史大相径庭的民主或其他社会变革强加于人。我们认识到,基于现实评估采取行动、与治理体系和社会制度不同的国家保持良好关系,同时推动理念相近的盟友维护共同规范,并不存在矛盾或虚伪之处 —— 这些做法均有助于推进美国利益。
国家至上 —— 民族国家是且将继续是世界的基本政治单位。所有国家优先考虑自身利益并捍卫主权,是自然且正当的。当各国都优先关注自身利益时,世界才能运转得最好。美国将把自身利益放在首位,并在与他国交往中,鼓励它们也优先考虑自身利益。我们支持各国的主权权利,反对最具干预性的跨国组织侵蚀主权的行为,并致力于改革这些机构,使其助力而非阻碍国家主权,并促进美国利益。
主权与尊重 —— 美国将毫无歉意地保护自身主权,包括防止跨国和国际组织侵蚀主权、外国势力或实体审查美国言论或限制公民言论自由、通过游说和影响力行动操纵美国政策或卷入外国冲突、以及通过恶意操控移民体系在美国境内建立忠于外国利益的投票集团等行为。美国将自主决定全球发展道路和国家命运,不受外部干涉。
权力平衡 —— 美国不能允许任何国家变得过于强大,以至于能够威胁美国利益。我们将与盟友和伙伴合作,维持全球和地区权力平衡,防止出现具有主导地位的敌对势力。正如美国拒绝自身寻求全球主导地位的错误理念一样,我们也必须阻止其他国家实现全球或地区主导。这并不意味着要耗费大量人力物力去削弱所有世界大国和中等国家的影响力 —— 大国、富国和强国拥有更大的影响力,是国际关系中永恒的事实。这一现实有时需要我们与伙伴合作,遏制威胁共同利益的野心。
支持美国工人 —— 美国政策应支持工人,而非仅仅追求经济增长,并应将本国工人的利益置于优先地位。我们必须重建一个繁荣广泛共享、而非集中于顶层或局限于特定行业、特定地区的经济体。
公平原则 —— 从军事联盟到贸易关系等各个领域,美国将坚持要求其他国家公平对待美国。我们不再容忍、也无法承受 “搭便车”、贸易失衡、掠夺性经济行为以及其他利用美国历史善意、损害美国利益的行为。我们希望盟友富裕且有能力,但盟友也必须认识到,美国保持富裕和强大同样符合它们的利益。特别是,我们期望盟友将更多的国内生产总值(GDP)用于自身国防,以弥补数十年来美国国防开支远超盟友所形成的巨大失衡。
胜任与择优 —— 美国的繁荣与安全依赖于胜任能力的培养与提升。胜任与择优是我们最伟大的文明优势之一:当最优秀的美国人得到雇佣、晋升和尊重时,创新与繁荣便会随之而来。若胜任能力被摧毁或系统性地受到抑制,我们习以为常的复杂体系 —— 从基础设施到国家安全,再到教育和研究 —— 都将无法正常运转。若择优原则被扼杀,美国在科学、技术、工业、国防和创新领域的历史优势将不复存在。若激进意识形态成功以 “特权群体地位” 取代胜任与择优原则,美国将变得面目全非,无法自我防卫。同时,我们不能允许精英统治被用作借口,以 “寻找全球人才” 为名开放美国劳动力市场,损害美国工人的利益。在我们的每一项原则和行动中,美国和美国人民必须始终处于首位。
2. 优先事项
大规模移民时代终结 —— 一个国家允许哪些人入境、入境人数和来源地,将不可避免地决定该国的未来。任何自视为主权国家的实体,都有权且有责任定义自身的未来。纵观历史,主权国家均禁止无序移民,仅在极少数情况下授予外国人公民身份,且这些外国人必须满足严格标准。西方过去数十年的经历印证了这一永恒的智慧。在世界各国,大规模移民导致国内资源紧张、暴力和其他犯罪增加、社会凝聚力削弱、劳动力市场扭曲,并损害国家安全。大规模移民时代必须终结。边境安全是国家安全的核心要素。我们必须保护国家免受入侵 —— 不仅包括无序移民,还包括恐怖主义、毒品、间谍活动和人口贩运等跨境威胁。由美国人民意志主导、政府执行的边境管控,是美国作为主权共和国存续的根本保障。
保护核心权利与自由 —— 美国政府的宗旨是保障美国公民天赋的自然权利。为此,美国政府各部门和机构被赋予了强大的权力。这些权力绝不能被滥用,无论是以 “去极端化”、“保护民主” 或其他任何借口。若权力被滥用,滥用者必须承担责任。特别是,言论自由、宗教信仰和良心自由、以及选择和主导国家治理的权利,是绝不能被侵犯的核心权利。对于认同或声称认同这些原则的国家,美国将坚决主张这些原则得到不折不扣的遵守。我们将反对欧洲、英语国家和其他民主世界中,由精英主导的、反民主的核心自由限制措施,尤其是在我们的盟友中。
责任分担与责任转移 —— 美国像阿特拉斯一样独自支撑全球秩序的时代已经结束。我们拥有数十个富裕、成熟的盟友和伙伴,它们必须承担起所在地区的主要责任,并为集体防御做出更大贡献。特朗普总统通过《海牙承诺》设定了新的全球标准,要求北约国家将 GDP 的 5% 用于国防 —— 北约盟友已认可这一承诺,现在必须予以落实。延续特朗普总统要求盟友承担所在地区主要责任的做法,美国将组织一个责任分担网络,由美国政府担任召集人和支持者。这一做法确保责任得到分担,且所有相关努力都能获得更广泛的合法性。其模式是建立有针对性的伙伴关系,利用经济工具协调激励机制、与理念相近的盟友分担责任,并坚持推动有助于长期稳定的改革。这种战略清晰度将使美国能够高效应对敌对和颠覆势力,同时避免过去因过度扩张和焦点分散而导致的失败。对于那些愿意为所在地区安全承担更多责任、并与美国协调出口管制政策的国家,美国将随时准备提供帮助 —— 可能包括更优惠的商业待遇、技术共享和国防采购合作。
以和平实现重新定位 —— 根据总统指示寻求和平协议,即使是在与美国直接核心利益关联不大的地区和国家,也是增强稳定性、扩大美国全球影响力、推动国家和地区重新向美国利益靠拢、并开拓新市场的有效途径。这一过程所需的资源主要是总统外交 —— 只有在胜任的领导层带领下,我们伟大的国家才能充分发挥这一优势。其回报 —— 结束长期冲突、拯救生命、结交新朋友 —— 将远远超过时间和精力方面的相对微小成本。
经济安全 —— 最后,由于经济安全是国家安全的基础,我们将致力于进一步强化美国经济,重点包括:
平衡贸易 —— 美国将优先调整贸易关系,减少贸易逆差,反对出口壁垒,并终止损害美国产业和工人利益的倾销及其他反竞争做法。我们寻求与希望在互利互尊基础上与美国开展贸易的国家,达成公平、对等的贸易协议。但我们的优先事项必须且将是美国工人、美国产业和美国国家安全。
保障关键供应链和物资获取 —— 正如亚历山大・汉密尔顿在共和国初期所主张的,美国绝不能在国防或经济所需的核心组件 —— 从原材料到零部件再到成品 —— 方面依赖任何外部力量。我们必须重新确保能够独立、可靠地获取保卫国家和维持生活方式所需的物资。这需要扩大美国对关键矿产和材料的获取,同时打击掠夺性经济行为。此外,情报界将监控全球关键供应链和技术进步,以确保我们了解并减轻对美国安全和繁荣的脆弱性及威胁。
再工业化 —— 未来属于制造者。美国将推动经济再工业化、产业回流,并鼓励和吸引对美国经济和劳动力的投资,重点关注将定义未来的关键和新兴技术领域。我们将通过战略性关税和新技术的应用,促进美国各地的广泛工业生产,提高美国工人的生活水平,并确保美国不再依赖任何当前或潜在的敌对势力获取关键产品或组件。
重振国防工业基础 —— 强大、有能力的军队离不开强大、有能力的国防工业基础。近期冲突表明,低成本无人机和导弹与防御这些武器所需的昂贵系统之间存在巨大差距,这凸显了我们变革和适应的必要性。美国需要全国动员,以低成本研发强大的防御系统,大规模生产最先进、最现代化的系统和弹药,并推动国防工业供应链回流。特别是,我们必须为作战人员提供全方位的能力,从能够击败大多数对手的低成本武器,到应对复杂敌人所需的最先进高端系统。为实现特朗普总统 “以实力求和平” 的愿景,我们必须迅速采取行动。我们还将鼓励所有盟友和伙伴重振工业基础,以加强集体防御。
能源主导 —— 恢复美国的能源主导地位(包括石油、天然气、煤炭和核能)并推动关键能源组件回流,是最高战略优先事项。廉价且丰富的能源将为美国创造高薪就业机会,降低消费者和企业成本,推动再工业化,并帮助维持美国在人工智能等尖端技术领域的优势。扩大净能源出口还将深化与盟友的关系,同时削弱敌对势力的影响力,保护美国的海岸防御能力,并在必要时支持力量投送。我们拒绝灾难性的 “气候变化” 和 “净零排放” 意识形态 —— 这些理念已严重损害欧洲,对美国构成威胁,并为我们的敌对势力提供了补贴。
维护并扩大美国金融部门主导地位 —— 美国拥有世界领先的金融和资本市场,这是美国影响力的支柱,为决策者提供了推动美国国家安全优先事项的重要杠杆和工具。但我们的领导地位并非理所当然。维护和扩大这一主导地位,需要利用我们充满活力的自由市场体系和在数字金融及创新领域的领导地位,确保美国市场继续保持最具活力、流动性和安全性,并始终成为世界羡慕的对象。
3. 地区战略
此类文件通常习惯于提及世界各个地区和所有议题,认为任何遗漏都意味着盲点或轻视。结果,这些文件变得臃肿且缺乏焦点 —— 这与战略应有的特质背道而驰。
聚焦和确定优先级意味着选择 —— 承认并非所有事物对所有人都同等重要。这并非断言任何民族、地区或国家本质上不重要。美国无疑是历史上最慷慨的国家 —— 但我们无法同时关注世界上每个地区和每个问题。
国家安全政策的目的是保护核心国家利益 —— 有些优先事项超越了地区界限。例如,在其他方面不太重要的地区发生的恐怖主义活动,可能需要我们紧急关注。但从这种必要性进而转向持续关注边缘地区,则是一种错误。
A. 西半球:门罗主义的特朗普推论
经过多年忽视,美国将重新主张并执行门罗主义,以恢复在西半球的主导地位,保护本土安全及在该地区关键地理位置的使用权。我们将阻止西半球以外的竞争对手在该地区部署军事力量或其他威胁性能力,或拥有、控制具有战略重要性的资产。这一 “门罗主义的特朗普推论”,是对美国力量和优先事项的合理且有力的恢复,符合美国的安全利益。
美国在西半球的目标可概括为 “争取与扩大”(Enlist and Expand)。我们将争取西半球的现有友好国家,共同控制移民、阻止毒品流动,并加强陆地和海上的稳定与安全。我们将通过培养和加强新伙伴、同时提升美国作为西半球首选经济和安全伙伴的吸引力,扩大合作网络。
争取(Enlist)
美国政策应侧重于争取该地区的 “地区领军者”,帮助在该地区(甚至超出其边境)创造可接受的稳定。这些国家将帮助我们阻止非法和破坏性移民、打击犯罪集团、推动制造业近岸化、发展本地私营经济等。我们将奖励并鼓励该地区与我们的原则和战略基本一致的政府、政党和运动。但我们也不应忽视那些理念不同,但与我们存在共同利益且愿意合作的政府。
美国必须重新考虑在西半球的军事存在。这意味着四项明确行动:
调整全球军事部署,以应对西半球的紧急威胁(特别是本战略确定的任务),并从近几十年来对美国国家安全相对重要性下降的地区撤出;
部署更适当的海岸警卫队和海军力量,以控制航道、阻止非法和不受欢迎的移民、减少人口和毒品贩运,并在危机中控制关键运输路线;
有针对性地部署力量,保障边境安全并打击犯罪集团,包括在必要时使用致命武力,以取代过去几十年仅依靠执法的失败策略;
建立或扩大在战略重要地点的准入权。美国将优先开展商业外交,以加强自身经济和产业,将关税和对等贸易协定作为强有力的工具。目标是让伙伴国发展国内经济,同时使经济更强大、更发达的西半球,成为美国商业和投资日益有吸引力的市场。加强该地区的关键供应链,将减少依赖并提高美国的经济韧性。美国与伙伴国之间建立的联系将使双方受益,同时增加西半球以外竞争对手在该地区扩大影响力的难度。在优先开展商业外交的同时,我们还将加强安全伙伴关系 —— 包括武器销售、情报共享和联合演习。
扩大(Expand)
在深化与当前关系密切的国家的伙伴关系的同时,我们必须寻求扩大在该地区的合作网络。我们希望其他国家将美国视为首选伙伴,并将(通过多种方式)阻止它们与其他国家合作。
西半球拥有许多战略资源,美国应与地区盟友合作开发这些资源,使邻国和美国都能更加繁荣。国家安全委员会将立即启动一个强有力的跨部门流程,责成各机构在情报界分析部门的支持下,识别西半球的战略地点和资源,以便与地区伙伴共同保护和开发这些资源。
西半球以外的竞争对手已在该地区取得重大进展,不仅在当前损害美国经济利益,还可能在未来对美国构成战略伤害。允许这些入侵行为不受严重反击,是美国近几十年来的又一重大战略错误。
美国必须在西半球保持主导地位 —— 这是美国安全与繁荣的前提条件,使我们能够在该地区需要的地方和时候自信地采取行动。我们的联盟条款以及提供任何形式援助的条件,都必须以减少敌对外部势力的影响为前提 —— 包括军事设施、港口和关键基础设施的控制权,以及对广义战略资产的收购。
考虑到某些拉丁美洲政府与特定外国行为体之间的政治结盟,部分外国影响力将难以逆转。然而,许多政府并非在意识形态上与外国势力结盟,而是出于其他原因(包括低成本和更少的监管障碍)愿意与其开展业务。美国通过具体展示所谓 “低成本” 外国援助中隐藏的诸多成本 —— 包括间谍活动、网络安全威胁、债务陷阱等 —— 成功削弱了西半球的外部影响力。我们应加快这些努力,包括利用美国在金融和技术领域的杠杆,促使各国拒绝此类援助。
在西半球乃至全世界,美国应明确表示,从长远来看,美国的商品、服务和技术是更优选择 —— 因为它们质量更高,且不像其他国家的援助那样附带条件。尽管如此,我们仍将改革自身体系,加快审批和许可流程 —— 再次强调,使美国成为首选伙伴。所有国家都应面临选择:是生活在美国主导的、由主权国家和自由经济体组成的世界,还是生活在一个受远隔重洋的国家影响的平行世界。
所有在该地区工作或负责该地区事务的美国官员,都必须全面了解有害外部影响力的全貌,同时向伙伴国施加压力并提供激励,以保护我们的西半球。
成功保护西半球还需要美国政府与美国私营部门加强合作。所有美国大使馆都必须了解驻在国的重大商业机会,特别是政府大型合同。每一位与这些国家打交道的美国政府官员都应明白,他们的部分职责是帮助美国公司竞争并取得成功。
美国政府将为美国公司识别该地区的战略收购和投资机会,并将这些机会提交给所有美国政府融资项目进行评估,包括但不限于国务院、国防部、能源部、小企业管理局、国际开发金融公司、进出口银行和千年挑战公司等机构的项目。我们还应与地区政府和企业合作,建设可扩展且具韧性的能源基础设施,投资关键矿产获取,并强化现有和未来的网络通信系统,充分发挥美国的加密和安全潜力。上述美国政府实体应用于为在国外采购美国商品的部分成本提供融资。
美国还必须抵制并扭转针对性税收、不公平监管和征用等损害美国企业利益的措施。我们的协议条款(尤其是与最依赖我们、因此我们拥有最大杠杆的国家的协议)必须确保美国公司获得独家合同。同时,我们应尽一切努力将在该地区建设基础设施的外国公司排挤出去。
B. 亚洲:赢得经济未来,以实力为基础预防军事冲突
特朗普总统独自扭转了美国三十多年来对中国的错误假设:即通过向中国开放市场、鼓励美国企业投资中国、将制造业外包给中国,将促进中国融入所谓的 “基于规则的国际秩序”。但这并未发生。中国变得富裕而强大,并利用其财富和力量为自身谋取巨大利益。美国精英 —— 历经四届两党政府 —— 要么是中国战略的自愿推动者,要么对此视而不见。
按购买力平价(PPP)计算,印太地区已占全球 GDP 的近一半,按名义 GDP 计算占三分之一。这一比例在 21 世纪必将继续增长。这意味着印太地区已经并将继续成为下个世纪关键的经济和地缘政治战场。要在国内实现繁荣,美国必须在该地区成功竞争 —— 而我们正在这样做。特朗普总统在 2025 年 10 月的访问期间签署了多项重要协议,进一步深化了美国与该地区在商业、文化、技术和国防领域的强大联系,并重申了美国对自由开放印太地区的承诺。
美国仍拥有巨大优势 —— 世界最强的经济和军事力量、无与伦比的创新能力、无可匹敌的 “软实力”,以及惠及盟友和伙伴的历史记录 —— 这些都使我们能够成功竞争。特朗普总统正在印太地区建立联盟并加强伙伴关系,这些将成为未来长期安全与繁荣的基石。
经济:终极赌注
自 1979 年中国经济向世界开放以来,美中商业关系一直且仍然存在根本性不平衡。这种最初介于成熟富裕经济体与世界最贫穷国家之一之间的关系,已转变为近乎对等国家之间的关系 —— 尽管直到最近,美国的对华姿态仍植根于过去的假设。
2017 年美国关税政策调整后,中国通过加强对供应链的控制(尤其是在全球低收入和中等收入国家 —— 即人均 GDP 不超过 13,800 美元的国家,这些国家是未来几十年最重要的经济战场之一)适应了这一变化。2020 年至 2024 年间,中国对低收入国家的出口翻了一番。美国通过中间商和中国在墨西哥等十几个国家建立的工厂,间接进口中国商品。如今,中国对低收入国家的出口几乎是其对美国出口的四倍。2017 年特朗普总统首次就职时,中国对美出口占其 GDP 的 4%,但此后已降至略高于 2%。然而,中国仍通过其他代理国家向美国出口商品。
展望未来,我们将重新平衡美中经济关系,优先考虑对等和公平,以恢复美国的经济独立性。与中国的贸易应实现平衡,并聚焦于非敏感领域。如果美国保持增长势头,并在与北京维持真正互利的经济关系的同时持续发展,我们的经济规模有望从 2025 年的 30 万亿美元增长到 21 世纪 30 年代的 40 万亿美元,使美国处于维持世界领先经济体地位的有利位置。我们的最终目标是为长期经济活力奠定基础。重要的是,这必须伴随对威慑的持续重视,以预防印太地区发生战争。这种组合策略可以形成良性循环:强大的美国威慑为更有序的经济行动创造空间,而更有序的经济行动则为美国提供更多资源,以维持长期威慑。
要实现这一目标,以下几点至关重要:首先,美国必须保护本国经济和人民免受任何国家或来源的伤害。这意味着要终止(包括但不限于):
掠夺性的、由国家主导的补贴和产业战略;
不公平贸易行为;
就业岗位流失和去工业化;
大规模知识产权盗窃和工业间谍活动;
威胁美国获取关键资源(包括矿产和稀土元素)的供应链风险;
导致美国阿片类药物危机的芬太尼前体出口;
宣传、影响力行动和其他形式的文化颠覆。
其次,美国必须与条约盟友和伙伴合作 —— 它们的经济总量达 35 万亿美元,与美国 30 万亿美元的国民经济相加,占全球经济的一半以上 —— 以抵制掠夺性经济行为,并利用联合经济力量维护我们在世界经济中的首要地位,确保盟友经济不会从属于任何竞争势力。我们必须继续改善与印度的商业(及其他)关系,鼓励新德里为印太地区安全做出贡献,包括通过与澳大利亚、日本和美国的 “四方安全对话”(Quad)持续合作。此外,我们还将努力协调盟友和伙伴的行动,以维护共同利益,防止任何单一竞争国家主导地区事务。
同时,美国必须投资研究,以维护和提升在尖端军事和两用技术领域的优势,重点关注美国优势最明显的领域。这些领域包括水下、太空和核技术,以及将决定未来军事力量的其他领域,如人工智能、量子计算和自主系统,以及为这些领域提供动力的能源技术。
此外,美国政府与美国私营部门的关键合作,有助于监控美国网络(包括关键基础设施)面临的持续威胁。这进而使美国政府能够进行实时发现、溯源和响应(即网络防御和进攻性网络行动),同时保护美国经济的竞争力并增强美国技术部门的韧性。提升这些能力还需要大幅放松监管,以进一步提高竞争力、刺激创新并增加美国自然资源的获取。通过这些举措,我们旨在恢复对美国及其地区盟友有利的军事平衡。
除了维持经济主导地位和将联盟体系整合为经济集团外,美国还必须在未来几十年全球经济增长最有可能发生的国家,开展强有力的外交和私营部门主导的经济参与。
“美国优先” 外交旨在重新平衡全球贸易关系。我们已向盟友明确表示,美国当前的经常账户赤字是不可持续的。我们必须鼓励欧洲、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、加拿大、墨西哥和其他主要国家采取贸易政策,帮助中国经济转向家庭消费 —— 因为东南亚、拉丁美洲和中东无法独自吸收中国巨大的产能过剩。欧洲和亚洲的出口国也可以将中等收入国家视为有限但不断增长的出口市场。
中国的国有和国有支持企业在建设实体和数字基础设施方面表现出色,中国已将约 1.3 万亿美元的贸易顺差转化为对贸易伙伴的贷款。美国及其盟友尚未制定、更未执行针对所谓 “全球南方” 的联合计划,但共同拥有巨大资源。欧洲、日本、韩国和其他国家拥有 7 万亿美元的对外净资产。包括多边开发银行在内的国际金融机构,总资产达 1.5 万亿美元。尽管使命蔓延削弱了部分机构的效力,但本届政府致力于利用其领导地位实施改革,确保这些机构服务于美国利益。
美国与世界其他地区的区别 —— 我们的开放性、透明度、可信度、对自由和创新的承诺以及自由市场资本主义 —— 将继续使我们成为全球首选伙伴。美国在世界所需的关键技术领域仍占据主导地位。我们应向伙伴提供一系列激励措施 —— 例如高科技合作、国防采购和进入美国资本市场的机会 —— 以促使它们做出有利于美国的决策。
特朗普总统 2025 年 5 月对波斯湾国家的国事访问,展示了美国技术的力量和吸引力。在那里,总统赢得了海湾国家对美国卓越人工智能技术的支持,深化了伙伴关系。美国应同样争取欧洲和亚洲盟友及伙伴(包括印度),巩固和提升我们在西半球的联合地位,并在关键矿产领域加强在非洲的合作。我们应组建联盟,利用我们在金融和技术领域的比较优势,与合作国家建立出口市场。美国的经济伙伴不应再期望通过产能过剩和结构性失衡从美国获取收入,而应通过与战略对齐相关的有序合作以及接受美国长期投资来实现增长。
凭借世界上最深、最高效的资本市场,美国可以帮助低收入国家发展自身资本市场,并将其货币与美元更紧密地绑定,确保美元作为全球储备货币的未来地位。
我们最大的优势仍然是我们的政府体系和充满活力的自由市场经济。但我们不能想当然地认为我们体系的优势会自动胜出。因此,国家安全战略至关重要。
威慑军事威胁
从长远来看,维持美国的经济和技术主导地位,是威慑和预防大规模军事冲突最可靠的方式。
有利的常规军事平衡仍然是战略竞争的重要组成部分。台湾问题受到广泛关注,部分原因是台湾在半导体生产领域的主导地位,但主要原因是台湾直接连接第二岛链,并将东北亚和东南亚分为两个独立战区。鉴于全球三分之一的航运每年经过南海,这对美国经济具有重大影响。因此,威慑台海冲突(理想情况下通过维持军事优势)是优先事项。我们还将维持长期以来对台湾的政策宣示,即美国不支持任何单方面改变台海现状的行为。
我们将建立一支能够阻止第一岛链任何地方侵略行为的军队。但美国军队不能、也不应独自承担这一责任。我们的盟友必须增加国防开支,更重要的是,为集体防御做出更多实际贡献。美国的外交努力应侧重于推动第一岛链的盟友和伙伴,允许美国军队更广泛地使用其港口和其他设施、增加自身国防开支,并最重要的是,投资于旨在威慑侵略的能力。这将把第一岛链的海上安全问题相互关联,同时加强美国及其盟友阻止任何夺取台湾或形成对我们极为不利的力量平衡(以至于无法保卫该岛)的能力。
一个相关的安全挑战是,任何竞争对手都可能控制南海。这可能使潜在的敌对势力能够对世界上最重要的商业航道之一征收 “通行费”,或者更糟糕的是,随意关闭和重新开放该航道。这两种结果都将损害美国经济和更广泛的美国利益。必须制定强有力的措施,并辅以必要的威慑,以保持这些航道开放、无 “通行费”,且不被任何国家任意关闭。这不仅需要进一步投资于我们的军事(尤其是海军)能力,还需要与所有可能因此受损的国家(从印度到日本等)进行强有力的合作。
鉴于特朗普总统坚持要求日本和韩国增加责任分担,我们必须敦促这些国家增加国防开支,重点关注威慑对手和保护第一岛链所需的能力(包括新能力)。我们还将加强在西太平洋的军事存在,同时在与台湾和澳大利亚的交往中,继续坚持要求增加国防开支的立场。
预防冲突需要在印太地区保持警惕姿态、重振国防工业基础、美国及其盟友和伙伴增加军事投资,以及长期赢得经济和技术竞争。
C. 促进欧洲伟大
美国官员已习惯于从军事开支不足和经济停滞的角度看待欧洲问题。这有一定道理,但欧洲的真正问题更为深刻。
欧洲大陆在全球 GDP 中的占比不断下降 —— 从 1990 年的 25% 降至如今的 14%,部分原因是国家和跨国监管损害了创造力和勤奋精神。
但这种经济衰退,与文明消亡的真实且更严峻的前景相比,相形见绌。欧洲面临的更大问题包括:欧盟和其他跨国机构的行为损害政治自由和主权;移民政策正在改变欧洲大陆并引发冲突;言论自由受到审查,政治反对派遭到压制;出生率急剧下降;国家认同和自信丧失。
如果当前趋势继续下去,不到 20 年,欧洲大陆将变得面目全非。因此,某些欧洲国家是否仍能拥有足够强大的经济和军事力量,成为可靠的盟友,尚不确定。许多这些国家目前正加倍坚持当前的道路。我们希望欧洲保持欧洲本色,恢复文明自信,并放弃失败的过度监管政策。
这种缺乏自信在欧洲与俄罗斯的关系中表现得最为明显。除核武器外,欧洲盟友在几乎所有硬实力指标上都对俄罗斯拥有显著优势。由于俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争,欧洲与俄罗斯的关系现在已严重恶化,许多欧洲人将俄罗斯视为生存威胁。管理欧洲与俄罗斯的关系,需要美国进行大量外交参与,既要重建欧亚大陆的战略稳定条件,也要减轻俄罗斯与欧洲国家之间发生冲突的风险。
美国的核心利益是促成乌克兰冲突的迅速停火,以稳定欧洲经济、防止战争意外升级或扩大、与俄罗斯重建战略稳定,并为乌克兰战后重建创造条件,使其能够作为一个可行的国家存续。
乌克兰战争产生了适得其反的效果,增加了欧洲(尤其是德国)的外部依赖。如今,德国化工企业正在中国建设一些世界上最大的加工厂,使用它们在国内无法获得的俄罗斯天然气。特朗普政府与欧洲官员存在分歧 —— 这些官员对战争抱有不切实际的期望,他们所在的少数派政府不稳定,许多政府还践踏民主基本原则以压制反对派。绝大多数欧洲人希望和平,但这种愿望未能转化为政策,很大程度上是因为这些政府破坏了民主进程。这对美国具有战略重要性,因为如果欧洲国家陷入政治危机,它们就无法进行改革。
然而,欧洲在战略和文化上对美国仍然至关重要。跨大西洋贸易仍是全球经济和美国繁荣的支柱之一。欧洲从制造业到技术再到能源的各个部门,仍然是世界上最强大的部门之一。欧洲拥有尖端科学研究和世界领先的文化机构。我们不能放弃欧洲 —— 这样做将与本战略的目标背道而驰,自取其败。
美国外交应继续支持真正的民主、言论自由,并坚定地弘扬欧洲各国的独特特质和历史。美国鼓励其在欧洲的政治盟友推动这种精神复兴,而欧洲爱国政党影响力的不断增长,确实带来了巨大的乐观理由。我们的目标应是帮助欧洲纠正当前的发展轨迹。我们需要一个强大的欧洲,帮助我们成功竞争,并与我们协同工作,防止任何敌对势力主导欧洲。
可以理解的是,美国对欧洲大陆 —— 当然还有英国和爱尔兰 —— 怀有情感依恋。这些国家的特质在战略上也很重要,因为我们依赖富有创造力、有能力、自信的民主盟友来建立稳定和安全的条件。我们希望与希望恢复昔日辉煌的志同道合的国家合作。
从长远来看,最迟在几十年内,某些北约成员国的人口可能会以非欧洲人为主。因此,它们是否会以签署北约宪章的国家相同的方式看待自身的世界地位或与美国的联盟,仍是一个悬而未决的问题。我们对欧洲的广泛政策应优先考虑:
重建欧洲内部的稳定条件和与俄罗斯的战略稳定;
使欧洲能够独立自主,作为一组对齐的主权国家运作,包括承担自身国防的主要责任,不被任何敌对势力主导;
在欧洲国家内部培育抵制当前发展轨迹的力量;
向美国商品和服务开放欧洲市场,确保美国工人和企业得到公平对待;
通过商业联系、武器销售、政治合作以及文化和教育交流,建设中东欧和南欧的健康国家;
消除北约被视为永久扩张联盟的看法,并防止这一现实发生;
鼓励欧洲采取行动,打击重商主义产能过剩、技术盗窃、网络间谍活动和其他敌对经济行为。
D. 中东:转移责任,构建和平
至少半个世纪以来,美国外交政策一直将中东置于所有其他地区之上。原因显而易见:中东数十年来一直是世界上最重要的能源供应地,是超级大国竞争的主要战场,且冲突频发,有可能蔓延至更广泛的地区甚至美国本土。
如今,至少有两个因素已不复存在。能源供应已大幅多样化,美国再次成为净能源出口国。超级大国竞争已被大国博弈所取代,美国在其中仍拥有最令人羡慕的地位 —— 特朗普总统成功重振了美国与海湾地区、其他阿拉伯伙伴和以色列的联盟,进一步巩固了这一地位。
冲突仍然是中东最棘手的问题,但如今这一问题的严重性,远不如媒体头条所暗示的那样。伊朗 —— 该地区的主要破坏稳定力量 —— 自 2023 年 10 月 7 日以来,因以色列的行动而大幅削弱;特朗普总统 2025 年 6 月的 “午夜铁锤行动”,显著摧毁了伊朗的核计划。巴以冲突仍然棘手,但得益于特朗普总统谈判达成的停火协议和人质释放,朝着更永久和平的方向取得了进展。哈马斯的主要支持者已被削弱或退缩。叙利亚仍然是一个潜在问题,但在美国、阿拉伯国家、以色列和土耳其的支持下,可能会稳定下来,并重新成为该地区不可或缺的积极参与者。
随着本届政府取消或放宽限制性能源政策,美国能源产量增加,美国关注中东的历史原因将逐渐淡化。相反,该地区将日益成为国际投资的来源地和目的地,投资领域将远超石油和天然气 —— 包括核能、人工智能和国防技术。我们还可以与中东伙伴合作,推进其他经济利益,从保障供应链到增加在非洲等世界其他地区开发友好开放市场的机会。
中东伙伴正展示出打击激进主义的决心 —— 美国政策应继续鼓励这一趋势。但要做到这一点,美国必须放弃错误的做法:不再逼迫这些国家(尤其是海湾君主国)放弃其传统和历史治理形式。我们应鼓励并赞扬自发出现的改革,而不是试图从外部强加改革。与中东建立成功关系的关键是,接受该地区、其领导人及其国家的现状,同时在共同利益领域开展合作。
美国始终有核心利益:确保海湾能源供应不落入公然敌人手中、霍尔木兹海峡保持开放、红海保持通航、该地区不成为针对美国利益或本土的恐怖主义滋生地和输出地、以及以色列保持安全。我们可以且必须在意识形态和军事层面应对这一威胁,而无需进行数十年徒劳的 “国家建设” 战争。我们还有明确的利益,将《亚伯拉罕协议》扩大到该地区更多国家和穆斯林世界的其他国家。
但值得庆幸的是,中东在长期规划和日常执行中主导美国外交政策的时代已经结束 —— 这并非因为中东不再重要,而是因为它不再是过去那种持续令人困扰、可能引发迫在眉睫灾难的地区。相反,它正逐渐成为伙伴关系、友谊和投资的场所 —— 这一趋势应得到欢迎和鼓励。事实上,特朗普总统在沙姆沙伊赫团结阿拉伯世界追求和平与正常化的能力,将使美国最终能够优先关注自身利益。
E. 非洲
长期以来,美国的非洲政策一直侧重于提供并传播自由主义意识形态。相反,美国应寻求与特定国家合作,缓解冲突、促进互利贸易关系,并从对外援助模式转向投资和增长模式,以利用非洲丰富的自然资源和潜在经济潜力。
参与机会可能包括:协商解决持续冲突(如刚果(金)- 卢旺达、苏丹)、预防新冲突(如埃塞俄比亚 - 厄立特里亚 - 索马里),以及调整援助和投资方式(如《非洲增长与机会法案》)。我们必须警惕非洲部分地区伊斯兰恐怖主义活动的复苏,同时避免美国长期驻军或做出长期承诺。
美国应将与非洲的关系从以援助为重点,转向以贸易和投资为重点,优先与有能力、可靠且致力于向美国商品和服务开放市场的国家建立伙伴关系。美国在非洲的即时投资领域(有望获得良好回报)包括能源部门和关键矿产开发。美国支持的核能、液化石油气和液化天然气技术的开发,可为美国企业创造利润,并帮助我们在关键矿产和其他资源的竞争中占据优势。
附:
2017年第一任期版本和现版本相关涉华表述的差异:
图片
英文原文如下:
I. Introduction – What Is American Strategy?
1. How American “Strategy” Went Astray
To ensure that America remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful country for decades to come, our country needs a coherent, focused strategy for how we interact with the world. And to get that right, all Americans need to know what, exactly, it is we are trying to do and why.
A “strategy” is a concrete, realistic plan that explains the essential connection between ends and means:it begins from an accurate assessment of what is desired and what tools are available, or can realistically be created, to achieve the desired outcomes.
A strategy must evaluate, sort, and prioritize. Not every country, region, issue, or cause—however worthy—can be the focus of American strategy. The purpose of foreign policy is the protection of core national interests; that is the sole focus of this strategy.
American strategies since the end of the Cold War have fallen short—they have been laundry lists of wishes or desired end states; have not clearly defined what we want but instead stated vague platitudes; and have often misjudged what we should want.
After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country. Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.
Our elites badly miscalculated America’s willingness to shoulder forever global burdens to which the American people saw no connection to the national interest. They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare- regulatory-administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. They placed hugely misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so-called “free trade” that hollowed out the very middle class and industrial base on which American economic and military preeminence depend. They allowed allies and partners to offload the cost of their defense onto the American people, and sometimes to suck us into conflicts and controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own. And they lashed American policy to a network of international institutions, some of which are driven by outright anti-Americanism and many by a transnationalism that explicitly seeks to dissolve individual state sovereignty. In sum, not only did our elites pursue a fundamentally undesirable and impossible goal, in doing so they undermined the very means necessary to achieve that goal:the character of our nation upon which its power, wealth, and decency were built.
2. President Trump’s Necessary, Welcome Correction
None of this was inevitable. President Trump’s first administration proved that with the right leadership making the right choices, all of the above could—and should—have been avoided, and much else achieved. He and his team successfully marshaled America’s great strengths to correct course and begin ushering in a new golden age for our country. To continue the United States on that path is the overarching purpose of President Trump’s second administration, and of this document.
The questions before us now are:1)What should the United States want? 2)What are our available means to get it? and 3)How can we connect ends and means into a viable National Security Strategy?
II. What Should the United States Want?
1. What Do We Want Overall?
First and foremost, we want the continued survival and safety of the United States as an independent, sovereign republic whose government secures the God-given natural rights of its citizens and prioritizes their well-being and interests.
We want to protect this country, its people, its territory, its economy, and its way of life from military attack and hostile foreign influence, whether espionage, predatory trade practices, drug and human trafficking, destructive propaganda and influence operations, cultural subversion, or any other threat to our nation.
We want full control over our borders, over our immigration system, and over transportation networks through which people come into our country—legally and illegally. We want a world in which migration is not merely “orderly” but one in which sovereign countries work together to stop rather than facilitate destabilizing population flows, and have full control over whom they do and do not admit.
We want a resilient national infrastructure that can withstand natural disasters, resist and thwart foreign threats, and prevent or mitigate any events that might harm the American people or disrupt the American economy. No adversary or danger should be able to hold America at risk.
We want to recruit, train, equip, and field the world’s most powerful, lethal, and technologically advanced military to protect our interests, deter wars, and—if necessary—win them quickly and decisively, with the lowest possible casualties to our forces. And we want a military in which every single servicemember is proud of their country and confident in their mission.
We want the world’s most robust, credible, and modern nuclear deterrent, plus next-generation missile defenses—including a Golden Dome for the American homeland—to protect the American people, American assets overseas, and American allies.
We want the world’s strongest, most dynamic, most innovative, and most advanced economy. The U.S. economy is the bedrock of the American way of life, which promises and delivers widespread and broad-based prosperity, creates upward mobility, and rewards hard work. Our economy is also the bedrock of our global position and the necessary foundation of our military.
We want the world’s most robust industrial base. American national power depends on a strong industrial sector capable of meeting both peacetime and wartime production demands. That requires not only direct defense industrial production capacity but also defense-related production capacity. Cultivating American industrial strength must become the highest priority of national economic policy.
We want the world’s most robust, productive, and innovative energy sector—one capable not just of fueling American economic growth but of being one of America’s leading export industries in its own right.
We want to remain the world’s most scientifically and technologically advanced and innovative country, and to build on these strengths. And we want to protect our intellectual property from foreign theft. America’s pioneering spirit is a key pillar of our continued economic dominance and military superiority; it must be preserved.
We want to maintain the United States’ unrivaled “soft power” through which we exercise positive influence throughout the world that furthers our interests. In doing so, we will be unapologetic about our country’s past and present while respectful of other countries’ differing religions, cultures, and governing systems. “Soft power” that serves America’s true national interest is effective only if we believe in our country’s inherent greatness and decency.
Finally, we want the restoration and reinvigoration of American spiritual and cultural health, without which long-term security is impossible. We want an America that cherishes its past glories and its heroes, and that looks forward to a new golden age. We want a people who are proud, happy, and optimistic that they will leave their country to the next generation better than they found it. We want a gainfully employed citizenry—with no one sitting on the sidelines—who take satisfaction from knowing that their work is essential to the prosperity of our nation and to the well-being of individuals and families. This cannot be accomplished without growing numbers of strong, traditional families that raise healthy children.
2. What Do We Want In and From the World?
Achieving these goals requires marshaling every resource of our national power. Yet this strategy’s focus is foreign policy. What are America’s core foreign policy interests? What do we want in and from the world?
• We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States; we want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations; we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine;
• We want to halt and reverse the ongoing damage that foreign actors inflict on the American economy while keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open, preserving freedom of navigation in all crucial sea lanes, and maintaining secure and reliable supply chains and access to critical materials;
• We want to support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe, while restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity;
• We want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East, its oil and gas supplies, and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the “forever wars” that bogged us down in that region at great cost; and
• We want to ensure that U.S. technology and U.S. standards—particularly in AI, biotech, and quantum computing—drive the world forward.
These are the United States’ core, vital national interests. While we also have others, these are the interests we must focus on above all others, and that we ignore or neglect at our peril.
III. What Are America’s Available Means to Get What We Want?
America retains the world’s most enviable position, with world-leading assets, resources, and advantages, including:
• A still nimble political system that can course correct;
• The world’s single largest and most innovative economy, which both generates wealth we can invest in strategic interests and provides leverage over countries that want access to our markets;
• The world’s leading financial system and capital markets, including the dollar’s global reserve currency status;
• The world’s most advanced, most innovative, and most profitable technology sector, which undergirds our economy, provides a qualitative edge to our military, and strengthens our global influence;
• The world’s most powerful and capable military;
• A broad network of alliances, with treaty allies and partners in the world’s most strategically important regions;
• An enviable geography with abundant natural resources, no competing powers physically dominant in our Hemisphere, borders at no risk of military invasion, and other great powers separated by vast oceans;
• Unmatched “soft power” and cultural influence; and
• The courage, willpower, and patriotism of the American people.
In addition, through President Trump’s robust domestic agenda, the United States is:
• Re-instilling a culture of competence, rooting out so-called “DEI” and other discriminatory and anti-competitive practices that degrade our institutions and hold us back;
• Unleashing our enormous energy production capacity as a strategic priority to fuel growth and innovation, and to bolster and rebuild the middle class;
• Reindustrializing our economy, again to further support the middle class and control our own supply chains and production capacities;
• Returning economic freedom to our citizens via historic tax cuts and deregulatory efforts, making the United States the premier place to do business and invest capital; and
• Investing in emerging technologies and basic science, to ensure our continued prosperity, competitive advantage, and military dominance for future generations.
The goal of this strategy is to tie together all of these world-leading assets, and others, to strengthen American power and preeminence and make our country even greater than it ever has been.
IV. The Strategy
1. Principles
President Trump’s foreign policy is pragmatic without being “pragmatist,” realistic without being “realist,” principled without being “idealistic,” muscular without being “hawkish,” and restrained without being “dovish.” It is not grounded in traditional, political ideology. It is motivated above all by what works for America—or, in two words, “America First.”
President Trump has cemented his legacy as The President of Peace. In addition to the remarkable success achieved during his first term with the historic Abraham Accords, President Trump has leveraged his dealmaking ability to secure unprecedented peace in eight conflicts throughout the world over the course of just eight months of his second term. He negotiated peace between Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the DRC and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and ended the war in Gaza with all living hostages returned to their families.
Stopping regional conflicts before they spiral into global wars that drag down whole continents is worthy of the Commander-in-Chief’s attention, and a priority for this administration. A world on fire, where wars come to our shores, is bad for American interests. President Trump uses unconventional diplomacy, America’s military might, and economic leverage to surgically extinguish embers of division between nuclear-capable nations and violent wars caused by centuries-long hatred.
President Trump has proven that American foreign, defense, and intelligence policies must be driven by the following basic principles:
• Focused Definition of the National Interest – Since at least the end of the Cold War, administrations have often published National Security Strategies that seek to expand the definition of America’s “national interest” such that that almost no issue or endeavor is considered outside its scope. But to focus on everything is to focus on nothing. America’s core national security interests shall be our focus.
• Peace Through Strength – Strength is the best deterrent. Countries or other actors sufficiently deterred from threatening American interests will not do so. In addition, strength can enable us to achieve peace, because parties that respect our strength often seek our help and are receptive to our efforts to resolve conflicts and maintain peace. Therefore, the United States must maintain the strongest economy, develop the most advanced technologies, bolster our society’s cultural health, and field the world’s most capable military.
• Predisposition to Non-Interventionism – In the Declaration of Independence, America’s founders laid down a clear preference for non- interventionism in the affairs of other nations and made clear the basis:just as all human beings possess God-given equal natural rights, all nations are entitled by “the laws of nature and nature’s God” to a “separate and equal station” with respect to one another. For a country whose interests are as numerous and diverse as ours, rigid adherence to non-interventionism is not possible. Yet this predisposition should set a high bar for what constitutes a justified intervention.
• Flexible Realism – U.S. policy will be realistic about what is possible and desirable to seek in its dealings with other nations. We seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories. We recognize and affirm that there is nothing inconsistent or hypocritical in acting according to such a realistic assessment or in maintaining good relations with countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours even as we push like-minded friends to uphold our shared norms, furthering our interests as we do so.
• Primacy of Nations – The world’s fundamental political unit is and will remain the nation-state. It is natural and just that all nations put their interests first and guard their sovereignty. The world works best when nations prioritize their interests. The United States will put our own interests first and, in our relations with other nations, encourage them to prioritize their own interests as well. We stand for the sovereign rights of nations, against the sovereignty-sapping incursions of the most intrusive transnational organizations, and for reforming those institutions so that they assist rather than hinder individual sovereignty and further American interests.
• Sovereignty and Respect – The United States will unapologetically protect our own sovereignty. This includes preventing its erosion by transnational and international organizations, attempts by foreign powers or entities to censor our discourse or curtail our citizens’ free speech rights, lobbying and influence operations that seek to steer our policies or involve us in foreign conflicts, and the cynical manipulation of our immigration system to build up voting blocs loyal to foreign interests within our country. The United States will chart our own course in the world and determine our own destiny, free of outside interference.
• Balance of Power – The United States cannot allow any nation to become so dominant that it could threaten our interests. We will work with allies and partners to maintain global and regional balances of power to prevent the emergence of dominant adversaries. As the United States rejects the ill-fated concept of global domination for itself, we must prevent the global, and in some cases even regional, domination of others. This does not mean wasting blood and treasure to curtail the influence of all the world’s great and middle powers. The outsized influence of larger, richer, and stronger nations is a timeless truth of international relations. This reality sometimes entails working with partners to thwart ambitions that threaten our joint interests.
• Pro-American Worker – American policy will be pro-worker, not merely pro-growth, and it will prioritize our own workers. We must rebuild an economy in which prosperity is broadly based and widely shared, not concentrated at the top or localized in certain industries or a few parts of our country.
• Fairness – From military alliances to trade relations and beyond, the United States will insist on being treated fairly by other countries. We will no longer tolerate, and can no longer afford, free-riding, trade imbalances, predatory economic practices, and other impositions on our nation’s historic goodwill that disadvantage our interests. As we want our allies to be rich and capable, so must our allies see that it is in their interest that the United States also remain rich and capable. In particular, we expect our allies to spend far more of their national Gross Domestic Product(GDP)on their own defense, to start to make up for the enormous imbalances accrued over decades of much greater spending by the United States.
• Competence and Merit – American prosperity and security depend on the development and promotion of competence. Competence and merit are among our greatest civilizational advantages:where the best Americans are hired, promoted, and honored, innovation and prosperity follow. Should competence be destroyed or systematically discouraged, complex systems that we take for granted—from infrastructure to national security to education and research—will cease to function. Should merit be smothered, America’s historic advantages in science, technology, industry, defense, and innovation will evaporate. The success of radical ideologies that seek to replace competence and merit with favored group status would render America unrecognizable and unable to defend itself. At the same time, we cannot allow meritocracy to be used as a justification to open America’s labor market to the world in the name of finding “global talent” that undercuts American workers. In our every principle and action, America and Americans must always come first.
2. Priorities
• The Era of Mass Migration Is Over – Who a country admits into its borders—in what numbers and from where—will inevitably define the future of that nation. Any country that considers itself sovereign has the right and duty to define its future. Throughout history, sovereign nations prohibited uncontrolled migration and granted citizenship only rarely to foreigners, who also had to meet demanding criteria. The West’s experience over the past decades vindicates this enduring wisdom. In countries throughout the world, mass migration has strained domestic resources, increased violence and other crime, weakened social cohesion, distorted labor markets, and undermined national security. The era of mass migration must end. Border security is the primary element of national security. We must protect our country from invasion, not just from unchecked migration but from cross-border threats such as terrorism, drugs, espionage, and human trafficking. A border controlled by the will of the American people as implemented by their government is fundamental to the survival of the United States as a sovereign republic.
• Protection of Core Rights and Liberties – The purpose of the American government is to secure the God-given natural rights of American citizens. To this end, departments and agencies of the United States Government have been granted fearsome powers. Those powers must never be abused, whether under the guise of “deradicalization,” “protecting our democracy,” or any other pretext. When and where those powers are abused, abusers must be held accountable. In particular, the rights of free speech, freedom of religion and of conscience, and the right to choose and steer our common government are core rights that must never be infringed. Regarding countries that share, or say they share, these principles, the United States will advocate strongly that they be upheld in letter and spirit. We will oppose elite-driven, anti-democratic restrictions on core liberties in Europe, the Anglosphere, and the rest of the democratic world, especially among our allies.
• Burden-Sharing and Burden-Shifting – The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over. We count among our many allies and partners dozens of wealthy, sophisticated nations that must assume primary responsibility for their regions and contribute far more to our collective defense. President Trump has set a new global standard with the Hague Commitment, which pledges NATO countries to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense and which our NATO allies have endorsed and must now meet. Continuing President Trump’s approach of asking allies to assume primary responsibility for their regions, the United States will organize a burden-sharing network, with our government as convener and supporter. This approach ensures that burdens are shared and that all such efforts benefit from broader legitimacy. The model will be targeted partnerships that use economic tools to align incentives, share burdens with like-minded allies, and insist on reforms that anchor long-term stability. This strategic clarity will allow the United States to counter hostile and subversive influences efficiently while avoiding the overextension and diffuse focus that undermined past efforts. The United States will stand ready to help— potentially through more favorable treatment on commercial matters, technology sharing, and defense procurement—those counties that willingly take more responsibility for security in their neighborhoods and align their export controls with ours.
• Realignment Through Peace – Seeking peace deals at the President’s direction, even in regions and countries peripheral to our immediate core interests, is an effective way to increase stability, strengthen America’s global influence, realign countries and regions toward our interests, and open new markets. The resources required boil down to presidential diplomacy, which our great nation can embrace only with competent leadership. The dividends—an end to longstanding conflicts, lives saved, new friends made—can vastly outweigh the relatively minor costs of time and attention.
• Economic Security – Finally, because economic security is fundamental to national security, we will work to further strengthen the American economy, with emphases on:
o Balanced Trade – The United States will prioritize rebalancing our trade relations, reducing trade deficits, opposing barriers to our exports, and ending dumping and other anti-competitive practices that hurt American industries and workers. We seek fair, reciprocal trade deals with nations that want to trade with us on a basis of mutual benefit and respect. But our priorities must and will be our own workers, our own industries, and our own national security.
o Securing Access to Critical Supply Chains and Materials – As Alexander Hamilton argued in our republic’s earliest days, the United States must never be dependent on any outside power for core components—from raw materials to parts to finished products— necessary to the nation’s defense or economy. We must re-secure our own independent and reliable access to the goods we need to defend ourselves and preserve our way of life. This will require expanding American access to critical minerals and materials while countering predatory economic practices. Moreover, the Intelligence Community will monitor key supply chains and technological advances around the world to ensure we understand and mitigate vulnerabilities and threats to American security and prosperity.
o Reindustrialization – The future belongs to makers. The United States will reindustrialize its economy, “re-shore” industrial production, and encourage and attract investment in our economy and our workforce, with a focus on the critical and emerging technology sectors that will define the future. We will do so through the strategic use of tariffs and new technologies that favor widespread industrial production in every corner of our nation, raise living standards for American workers, and ensure that our country is never again reliant on any adversary, present or potential, for critical products or components.
o Reviving our Defense Industrial Base – A strong, capable military cannot exist without a strong, capable defense industrial base. The huge gap, demonstrated in recent conflicts, between low-cost drones and missiles versus the expensive systems required to defend against them has laid bare our need to change and adapt. America requires a national mobilization to innovate powerful defenses at low cost, to produce the most capable and modern systems and munitions at scale, and to re-shore our defense industrial supply chains. In particular, we must provide our warfighters with the full range of capabilities, ranging from low-cost weapons that can defeat most adversaries up to the most capable high-end systems necessary for a conflict with a sophisticated enemy. And to realize President Trump’s vision of peace through strength, we must do so quickly. We will also encourage the revitalization of the industrial bases of all our allies and partners to strengthen collective defense.
o Energy Dominance – Restoring American energy dominance(in oil, gas, coal, and nuclear)and reshoring the necessary key energy components is a top strategic priority. Cheap and abundant energy will produce well-paying jobs in the United States, reduce costs for American consumers and businesses, fuel reindustrialization, and help maintain our advantage in cutting-edge technologies such as AI. Expanding our net energy exports will also deepen relationships with allies while curtailing the influence of adversaries, protect our ability to defend our shores, and—when and where necessary—enables us to project power. We reject the disastrous “climate change” and “Net Zero” ideologies that have so greatly harmed Europe, threaten the United States, and subsidize our adversaries.
o Preserving and Growing America’s Financial Sector Dominance – The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities. But our leadership position cannot be taken for granted. Preserving and growing our dominance entails leveraging our dynamic free market system and our leadership in digital finance and innovation to ensure that our markets continue to be the most dynamic, liquid, and secure and remain the envy of the world.
3. The Regions
It has become customary for documents such as this to mention every part of the world and issue, on the assumption that any oversight signifies a blind spot or a snub. As a result, such documents become bloated and unfocused—the opposite of what a strategy should be.
To focus and prioritize is to choose—to acknowledge that not everything matters equally, to everyone. It is not to assert that any peoples, regions, or countries are somehow intrinsically unimportant. The United States is by every measure the most generous nation in history—yet we cannot afford to be equally attentive to every region and every problem in the world.
The purpose of national security policy is the protection of core national interests—some priorities transcend regional confines. For instance, terrorist activity in an otherwise less consequential area might force our urgent attention. But leaping from that necessity to sustained attention to the periphery is a mistake.
A. Western Hemisphere:The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine
After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere. This “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.
Our goals for the Western Hemisphere can be summarized as “Enlist and Expand.” We will enlist established friends in the Hemisphere to control migration, stop drug flows, and strengthen stability and security on land and sea. We will expand by cultivating and strengthening new partners while bolstering our own nation’s appeal as the Hemisphere’s economic and security partner of choice.
Enlist
American policy should focus on enlisting regional champions that can help create tolerable stability in the region, even beyond those partners’ borders. These nations would help us stop illegal and destabilizing migration, neutralize cartels, near- shore manufacturing, and develop local private economies, among other things. We will reward and encourage the region’s governments, political parties, and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy. But we must not overlook governments with different outlooks with whom we nonetheless share interests and who want to work with us.
The United States must reconsider our military presence in the Western Hemisphere. This means four obvious things:
• A readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere, especially the missions identified in this strategy, and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined in recent decades or years;
• A more suitable Coast Guard and Navy presence to control sea lanes, to thwart illegal and other unwanted migration, to reduce human and drug trafficking, and to control key transit routes in a crisis;
• Targeted deployments to secure the border and defeat cartels, including where necessary the use of lethal force to replace the failed law enforcement-only strategy of the last several decades; and
• Establishing or expanding access in strategically important locations.
The United States will prioritize commercial diplomacy, to strengthen our own economy and industries, using tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools. The goal is for our partner nations to build up their domestic economies, while an economically stronger and more sophisticated Western Hemisphere becomes an increasingly attractive market for American commerce and investment.
Strengthening critical supply chains in this Hemisphere will reduce dependencies and increase American economic resilience. The linkages created between America and our partners will benefit both sides while making it harder for non- Hemispheric competitors to increase their influence in the region. And even as we prioritize commercial diplomacy, we will work to strengthen our security partnerships—from weapons sales to intelligence sharing to joint exercises.
Expand
As we deepen our partnerships with countries with whom America presently has strong relations, we must look to expand our network in the region. We want other nations to see us as their partner of first choice, and we will(through various means)discourage their collaboration with others.
The Western Hemisphere is home to many strategic resources that America should partner with regional allies to develop, to make neighboring countries as well as our own more prosperous. The National Security Council will immediately begin a robust interagency process to task agencies, supported by our Intelligence Community’s analytical arm, to identify strategic points and resources in the Western Hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners.
Non-Hemispheric competitors have made major inroads into our Hemisphere, both to disadvantage us economically in the present, and in ways that may harm us strategically in the future. Allowing these incursions without serious pushback is another great American strategic mistake of recent decades.
The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity—a condition that allows us to assert ourselves confidently where and when we need to in the region. The terms of our alliances, and the terms upon which we provide any kind of aid, must be contingent on winding down adversarial outside influence—from control of military installations, ports, and key infrastructure to the purchase of strategic assets broadly defined.
Some foreign influence will be hard to reverse, given the political alignments between certain Latin American governments and certain foreign actors. However, many governments are not ideologically aligned with foreign powers but are instead attracted to doing business with them for other reasons, including low costs and fewer regulatory hurdles. The United States has achieved success in rolling back outside influence in the Western Hemisphere by demonstrating, with specificity, how many hidden costs—in espionage, cybersecurity, debt-traps, and other ways—are embedded in allegedly “low cost” foreign assistance. We should accelerate these efforts, including by utilizing U.S. leverage in finance and technology to induce countries to reject such assistance.
In the Western Hemisphere—and everywhere in the world—the United States should make clear that American goods, services, and technologies are a far better buy in the long run, because they are higher quality and do not come with the same kind of strings as other countries’ assistance. That said, we will reform our own system to expedite approvals and licensing—again, to make ourselves the partner of first choice. The choice all countries should face is whether they want to live in an American-led world of sovereign countries and free economies or in a parallel one in which they are influenced by countries on the other side of the world.
Every U.S. official working in or on the region must be up to speed on the full picture of detrimental outside influence while simultaneously applying pressure and offering incentives to partner countries to protect our Hemisphere.
Successfully protecting our Hemisphere also requires closer collaboration between the U.S. Government and the American private sector. All our embassies must be aware of major business opportunities in their country, especially major government contracts. Every U.S. Government official that interacts with these countries should understand that part of their job is to help American companies compete and succeed.
The U.S. Government will identify strategic acquisition and investment opportunities for American companies in the region and present these opportunities for assessment by every U.S. Government financing program, including but not limited to those within the Departments of State, War, and Energy; the Small Business Administration; the International Development Finance Corporation; the Export-Import Bank; and the Millennium Challenge Corporation. We should also partner with regional governments and businesses to build scalable and resilient energy infrastructure, invest in critical mineral access, and harden existing and future cyber communications networks that take full advantage of American encryption and security potential. The aforementioned U.S. Government entities should be used to finance some of the costs of purchasing U.S. goods abroad.
The United States must also resist and reverse measures such as targeted taxation, unfair regulation, and expropriation that disadvantage U.S. businesses. The terms of our agreements, especially with those countries that depend on us most and therefore over which we have the most leverage, must be sole-source contracts for our companies. At the same time, we should make every effort to push out foreign companies that build infrastructure in the region.
B. Asia:Win the Economic Future, Prevent Military Confrontation
Leading from a Position of Strength
President Trump single-handedly reversed more than three decades of mistaken American assumptions about China:namely, that by opening our markets to China, encouraging American business to invest in China, and outsourcing our manufacturing to China, we would facilitate China’s entry into the so-called “rules- based international order.” This did not happen. China got rich and powerful, and used its wealth and power to its considerable advantage. American elites—over four successive administrations of both political parties—were either willing enablers of China’s strategy or in denial.
The Indo-Pacific is already the source of almost half the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity(PPP), and one third based on nominal GDP. That share is certain to grow over the 21st century. Which means that the Indo-Pacific is already and will continue to be among the next century’s key economic and geopolitical battlegrounds. To thrive at home, we must successfully compete there—and we are. President Trump signed major agreements during his October 2025 travels that further deepen our powerful ties of commerce, culture, technology, and defense, and reaffirm our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
America retains tremendous assets—the world’s strongest economy and military, world-beating innovation, unrivaled “soft power,” and a historic record of benefiting our allies and partners—that enable us to compete successfully.
President Trump is building alliances and strengthening partnerships in the Indo- Pacific that will be the bedrock of security and prosperity long into the future.
Economics:The Ultimate Stakes
Since the Chinese economy reopened to the world in 1979, commercial relations between our two countries have been and remain fundamentally unbalanced. What began as a relationship between a mature, wealthy economy and one of the world’s poorest countries has transformed into one between near-peers, even as, until very recently, America’s posture remained rooted in those past assumptions.
China adapted to the shift in U.S. tariff policy that began in 2017 in part by strengthening its hold on supply chains, especially in the world’s low- and middle- income(i.e., per capita GDP $13,800 or less)countries—among the greatest economic battlegrounds of the coming decades. China’s exports to low-income countries doubled between 2020 and 2024. The United States imports Chinese goods indirectly from middlemen and Chinese-built factories in a dozen countries, including Mexico. China’s exports to low-income countries are today nearly four times its exports to the United States. When President Trump first took office in 2017, China’s exports to the United States stood at 4 percent of its GDP but have since fallen to slightly over 2 percent of its GDP. China continues, however, to export to the United States through other proxy countries.
Going forward, we will rebalance America’s economic relationship with China, prioritizing reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence. Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive factors. If America remains on a growth path—and can sustain that while maintaining a genuinely mutually advantageous economic relationship with Beijing—we should be headed from our present $30 trillion economy in 2025 to $40 trillion in the 2030s, putting our country in an enviable position to maintain our status as the world’s leading economy. Our ultimate goal is to lay the foundation for long-term economic vitality.
Importantly, this must be accompanied by a robust and ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific. This combined approach can become a virtuous cycle as strong American deterrence opens up space for more disciplined economic action, while more disciplined economic action leads to greater American resources to sustain deterrence in the long term.
To accomplish this, several things are essential.
First, the United States must protect and defend our economy and our people from harm, from any country or source. This means ending(among other things):
• Predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies;
• Unfair trading practices;
• Job destruction and deindustrialization;
• Grand-scale intellectual property theft and industrial espionage;
• Threats against our supply chains that risk U.S. access to critical resources, including minerals and rare earth elements;
• Exports of fentanyl precursors that fuel America’s opioid epidemic; and
• Propaganda, influence operations, and other forms of cultural subversion.
Second, the United States must work with our treaty allies and partners—who together add another $35 trillion in economic power to our own $30 trillion national economy(together constituting more than half the world economy)—to counteract predatory economic practices and use our combined economic power to help safeguard our prime position in the world economy and ensure that allied economies do not become subordinate to any competing power. We must continue to improve commercial(and other)relations with India to encourage New Delhi to contribute to Indo-Pacific security, including through continued quadrilateral cooperation with Australia, Japan, and the United States(“the Quad”). Moreover, we will also work to align the actions of our allies and partners with our joint interest in preventing domination by any single competitor nation.
The United States must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where U.S. advantages are strongest. These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains.
Additionally, the U.S. Government’s critical relationships with the American private sector help maintain surveillance of persistent threats to U.S. networks, including critical infrastructure. This in turn enables the U.S. Government’s ability to conduct real-time discovery, attribution, and response(i.e., network defense and offensive cyber operations)while protecting the competitiveness of the U.S. economy and bolstering the resilience of the American technology sector.
Improving these capabilities will also require considerable deregulation to further improve our competitiveness, spur innovation, and increase access to America’s natural resources. In doing so, we should aim to restore a military balance favorable to the United States and to our allies in the region.
In addition to maintaining economic preeminence and consolidating our alliance system into an economic group, the United States must execute robust diplomatic and private sector-led economic engagement in those countries where the majority of global economic growth is likely to occur over the coming decades.
America First diplomacy seeks to rebalance global trade relationships. We have made clear to our allies that America’s current account deficit is unsustainable. We must encourage Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption, because Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East cannot alone absorb China’s enormous excess capacity. The exporting nations of Europe and Asia can also look to middle-income countries as a limited but growing market for their exports.
China’s state-led and state-backed companies excel in building physical and digital infrastructure, and China has recycled perhaps $1.3 trillion of its trade surpluses into loans to its trading partners. America and its allies have not yet formulated, much less executed, a joint plan for the so-called “Global South,” but together possess tremendous resources. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and others hold net foreign assets of $7 trillion. International financial institutions, including the multilateral development banks, possess combined assets of $1.5 trillion. While mission creep has undermined some of these institutions’ effectiveness, this administration is dedicated to using its leadership position to implement reforms that ensure they serve American interests.
What differentiates America from the rest of the world—our openness, transparency, trustworthiness, commitment to freedom and innovation, and free market capitalism—will continue to make us the global partner of first choice. America still holds the dominant position in the key technologies that the world needs. We should present partners with a suite of inducements—for instance, hightech cooperation, defense purchases, and access to our capital markets—that tip decisions in our favor.
President Trump’s May 2025 state visits to Persian Gulf countries demonstrated the power and appeal of American technology. There, the President won the
Gulf States’ support for America’s superior AI technology, deepening our partnerships. America should similarly enlist our European and Asian allies and partners, including India, to cement and improve our joint positions in the Western Hemisphere and, with regard to critical minerals, in Africa. We should form coalitions that use our comparative advantages in finance and technology to build export markets with cooperating countries. America’s economic partners should no longer expect to earn income from the United States through overcapacity and structural imbalances but instead pursue growth through managed cooperation tied to strategic alignment and by receiving long-term U.S. investment.
With the world’s deepest and most efficient capital markets, America can help low- income countries develop their own capital markets and bind their currencies more closely to the dollar, ensuring the dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency.
Our greatest advantages remain our system of government and dynamic free market economy. Yet we cannot assume that our system’s advantages will prevail by default. A national security strategy is, therefore, essential.
Deterring Military Threats
In the long term, maintaining American economic and technological preeminence is the surest way to deter and prevent a large-scale military conflict.
A favorable conventional military balance remains an essential component of strategic competition. There is, rightly, much focus on Taiwan, partly because of Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production, but mostly because Taiwan provides direct access to the Second Island Chain and splits Northeast and Southeast Asia into two distinct theaters. Given that one-third of global shipping passes annually through the South China Sea, this has major implications for the
U.S. economy. Hence deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority. We will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
We will build a military capable of denying aggression anywhere in the First Island Chain. But the American military cannot, and should not have to, do this alone.
Our allies must step up and spend—and more importantly do—much more for collective defense. America’s diplomatic efforts should focus on pressing our First Island Chain allies and partners to allow the U.S. military greater access to their ports and other facilities, to spend more on their own defense, and most importantly to invest in capabilities aimed at deterring aggression. This will interlink maritime security issues along the First Island Chain while reinforcing
U.S. and allies’ capacity to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan or achieve a balance of forces so unfavorable to us as to make defending that island impossible.
A related security challenge is the potential for any competitor to control the South China Sea. This could allow a potentially hostile power to impose a toll system over one of the world’s most vital lanes of commerce or—worse—to close and reopen it at will. Either of those two outcomes would be harmful to the U.S. economy and broader U.S. interests. Strong measures must be developed along with the deterrence necessary to keep those lanes open, free of “tolls,” and not subject to arbitrary closure by one country. This will require not just further investment in our military—especially naval—capabilities, but also strong cooperation with every nation that stands to suffer, from India to Japan and beyond, if this problem is not addressed.
Given President Trump’s insistence on increased burden-sharing from Japan and South Korea, we must urge these countries to increase defense spending, with a focus on the capabilities—including new capabilities—necessary to deter adversaries and protect the First Island Chain. We will also harden and strengthen our military presence in the Western Pacific, while in our dealings with Taiwan and Australia we maintain our determined rhetoric on increased defense spending.
Preventing conflict requires a vigilant posture in the Indo-Pacific, a renewed defense industrial base, greater military investment from ourselves and from allies and partners, and winning the economic and technological competition over the long term.
C. Promoting European Greatness
American officials have become used to thinking about European problems in terms of insufficient military spending and economic stagnation. There is truth to this, but Europe’s real problems are even deeper.
Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today—partly owing to national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness.
But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure. The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.
Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.
This lack of self-confidence is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia. European allies enjoy a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost every measure, save nuclear weapons. As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated, and many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states.
It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia, as well as to enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine to enable its survival as a viable state.
The Ukraine War has had the perverse effect of increasing Europe’s, especially Germany’s, external dependencies. Today, German chemical companies are building some of the world’s largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas that they cannot obtain at home. The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes. This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are trapped in political crisis.
Yet Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States. Transatlantic trade remains one of the pillars of the global economy and of American prosperity. European sectors from manufacturing to technology to energy remain among the world’s most robust. Europe is home to cutting-edge scientific research and world-leading cultural institutions. Not only can we not afford to write Europe off—doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve.
American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history. America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.
Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.
America is, understandably, sentimentally attached to the European continent— and, of course, to Britain and Ireland. The character of these countries is also strategically important because we count upon creative, capable, confident, democratic allies to establish conditions of stability and security. We want to work with aligned countries that want to restore their former greatness.
Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.
Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize:
• Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia;
• Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power;
• Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations;
• Opening European markets to U.S. goods and services and ensuring fair treatment of U.S. workers and businesses;
• Building up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe through commercial ties, weapons sales, political collaboration, and cultural and educational exchanges;
• Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance; and
• Encouraging Europe to take action to combat mercantilist overcapacity, technological theft, cyber espionage, and other hostile economic practices.
D. The Middle East:Shift Burdens, Build Peace
For half a century at least, American foreign policy has prioritized the Middle East above all other regions. The reasons are obvious:the Middle East was for decades the world’s most important supplier of energy, was a prime theater of superpower competition, and was rife with conflict that threatened to spill into the wider world and even to our own shores.
Today, at least two of those dynamics no longer hold. Energy supplies have diversified greatly, with the United States once again a net energy exporter. Superpower competition has given way to great power jockeying, in which the United States retains the most enviable position, reinforced by President Trump’s successful revitalization of our alliances in the Gulf, with other Arab partners, and with Israel.
Conflict remains the Middle East’s most troublesome dynamic, but there is today less to this problem than headlines might lead one to believe. Iran—the region’s chief destabilizing force—has been greatly weakened by Israeli actions since October 7, 2023, and President Trump’s June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, which significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains thorny, but thanks to the ceasefire and release of hostages President Trump negotiated, progress toward a more permanent peace has been made. Hamas’s chief backers have been weakened or stepped away. Syria remains a potential problem, but with American, Arab, Israeli, and Turkish support may stabilize and reassume its rightful place as an integral, positive player in the region.
As this administration rescinds or eases restrictive energy policies and American energy production ramps up, America’s historic reason for focusing on the Middle East will recede. Instead, the region will increasingly become a source and destination of international investment, and in industries well beyond oil and gas— including nuclear energy, AI, and defense technologies. We can also work with Middle East partners to advance other economic interests, from securing supply chains to bolstering opportunities to develop friendly and open markets in other parts of the world such as Africa.
Middle East partners are demonstrating their commitment to combatting radicalism, a trendline American policy should continue to encourage. But doing so will require dropping America’s misguided experiment with hectoring these nations—especially the Gulf monarchies—into abandoning their traditions and historic forms of government. We should encourage and applaud reform when and where it emerges organically, without trying to impose it from without. The key to successful relations with the Middle East is accepting the region, its leaders, and its nations as they are while working together on areas of common interest.
America will always have core interests in ensuring that Gulf energy supplies do not fall into the hands of an outright enemy, that the Strait of Hormuz remain open, that the Red Sea remain navigable, that the region not be an incubator or exporter of terror against American interests or the American homeland, and that Israel remain secure. We can and must address this threat ideologically and militarily without decades of fruitless “nation-building” wars. We also have a clear interest in expanding the Abraham Accords to more nations in the region and to other countries in the Muslim world.
But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was. It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment—a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged. In fact, President Trump’s ability to unite the Arab world at Sharm el-Sheikh in pursuit of peace and normalization will allow the United States to finally prioritize American interests.
E. Africa
For far too long, American policy in Africa has focused on providing, and later on spreading, liberal ideology. The United States should instead look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict, foster mutually beneficial trade relationships, and transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm capable of harnessing Africa’s abundant natural resources and latent economic potential.
Opportunities for engagement could include negotiating settlements to ongoing conflicts(e.g., DRC-Rwanda, Sudan), and preventing new ones(e.g., Ethiopia- Eritrea-Somalia), as well as action to amend our approach to aid and investment(e.g., the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act). And we must remain wary of resurgent Islamist terrorist activity in parts of Africa while avoiding any long-term American presence or commitments.
The United States should transition from an aid-focused relationship with Africa to a trade- and investment-focused relationship, favoring partnerships with capable, reliable states committed to opening their markets to U.S. goods and services. An immediate area for U.S. investment in Africa, with prospects for a good return on investment, include the energy sector and critical mineral development.
Development of U.S.-backed nuclear energy, liquid petroleum gas, and liquified natural gas technologies can generate profits for U.S. businesses and help us in the competition for critical minerals and other resources.