用户名:  密码:   
网站首页即时通讯活动公告最新消息科技前沿学人动向两岸三地人在海外历届活动关于我们联系我们申请加入
栏目导航 — 美国华裔教授专家网人在海外商讯税务
关键字  范围   
 
Joseph Stiglitz:US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China
Joseph Stiglitz:US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China
2018/8/16 9:07:13 | 浏览:1176 | 评论:0

Joseph Stiglitz:US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China

The prerequisites for a US victory - a clearly defined objective, a viable strategy, and popular support - simply don't exist.

What was at first a trade skirmish — with US President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum — appears to be quickly morphing into a full-scale trade war with China. If the truce agreed by Europe and the United States holds, the United States will be doing battle mainly with China, rather than the world(of course, the trade conflict with Canada and Mexico will continue to simmer, given US demands that neither country can or should accept).

Beyond the true but by now platitudinous assertion that everyone will lose, what can we say about the possible outcomes of Trump’s trade war? First, macroeconomics always prevails:if the United States’ domestic investment continues to exceed its savings, it will have to import capital and have a large trade deficit. Worse, because of the tax cuts enacted at the end of last year, the US fiscal deficit is reaching new records — recently projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2020 — which means that the trade deficit almost surely will increase, whatever the outcome of the trade war. The only way that won’t happen is if Trump leads the United States into a recession, with incomes declining so much that investment and imports plummet.

The “best” outcome of Trump’s narrow focus on the trade deficit with China would be improvement in the bilateral balance, matched by an increase of an equal amount in the deficit with some other country(or countries). The United States might sell more natural gas to China and buy fewer washing machines, but it will sell less natural gas to other countries and buy washing machines or something else from Thailand or another country that has avoided the irascible Trump’s wrath. But, because the United States interfered with the market, it will be paying more for its imports and getting less for its exports than otherwise would have been the case. In short, the best outcome means that the United States will be worse off than it is today.

The United States has a problem, but it’s not with China. It’s at home:America has been saving too little. Trump, like so many of his compatriots, is immensely shortsighted. If he had a whit of understanding of economics and a long-term vision, he would have done what he could to increase national savings. That would have reduced the multilateral trade deficit.

There are obvious quick fixes:China could buy more American oil and then sell it on to others. This would not make an iota of difference, beyond perhaps a slight increase in transaction costs. But Trump could trumpet that he had eliminated the bilateral trade deficit.

In fact, significantly reducing the bilateral trade deficit in a meaningful way will prove difficult. As demand for Chinese goods decreases, the renminbi’s exchange rate will weaken — even without any government intervention. This will partly offset the effect of US tariffs; at the same time, it will increase China’s competitiveness with other countries — and this will be true even if China doesn’t use other instruments in its possession, like wage and price controls, or push strongly for productivity increases. China’s overall trade balance, like that of the United States, is determined by its macroeconomics.

If China intervenes more actively and retaliates more aggressively, the change in the US–China trade balance could be even smaller. The relative pain each will inflict on the other is difficult to ascertain. China has more control of its economy and has wanted to shift toward a growth model based on domestic demand rather than investment and exports. The United States is simply helping China do what it has already been trying to do. On the other hand, US actions come at a time when China is trying to manage excess leverage and excess capacity; at least in some sectors, the United States will make these tasks all the more difficult.

This much is clear:if Trump’s objective is to stop China from pursuing its “Made in China 2025” policy — adopted in 2015 to further its 40-year goal of narrowing the income gap between China and the advanced countries — he will almost surely fail. On the contrary, Trump’s actions will only strengthen Chinese leaders’ resolve to boost innovation and achieve technological supremacy, as they realize that they can’t rely on others, and that the United States is actively hostile.

If a country enters a war, trade or otherwise, it should be sure that good generals — with clearly defined objectives, a viable strategy, and popular support —are in charge. It is here that the differences between China and the United States appear so great. No country could have a more unqualified economic team than Trump’s, and a majority of Americans are not behind the trade war.

Public support will wane even further as Americans realize that they lose doubly from this war:jobs will disappear, not only because of China’s retaliatory measures, but also because US tariffs increase the price of US exports and make them less competitive; and the prices of the goods they buy will rise. This may force the dollar’s exchange rate to fall, increasing inflation in the United States even more —giving rise to still more opposition. The Fed is likely then to raise interest rates, leading to weaker investment and growth and more unemployment.

Trump has shown how he responds when his lies are exposed or his policies are failing:he doubles down. China has repeatedly offered face-saving ways for Trump to leave the battlefield and declare victory. But he refuses to take them up. Perhaps hope can be found in three of his other traits:his focus on appearance over substance, his unpredictability, and his love of “big man” politics. Perhaps in a grand meeting with President Xi Jinping he can declare the problem solved, with some minor adjustments of tariffs here and there, and some new gesture toward market opening that China had already planned to announce, and everyone can go home happy.

In this scenario, Trump will have “solved,” imperfectly, a problem that he created. But the world following his foolish trade war will still be different:more uncertain, less confident in the international rule of law, and with harder borders. Trump has changed the world, permanently, for the worse. Even with the best possible outcomes, the only winner is Trump — with his outsize ego pumped up just a little more.

 

相关栏目:『商讯税务
在加拿大买房的首次购房者一定先开FHSA账户再买房才能得到退税啊!!! 2024-03-09 [226]
泰和研究|在美国投资的“透明”新要求 2024-03-08 [236]
华尔街传来“惊雷”: 美元可能飙升 2024-03-02 [494]
牛气冲天!全球股市有望创下三年来最大单月涨幅 2023-11-27 [1960]
中国亿万富翁、富力地产创始人张力在美“认罪”:贿赂官员共谋欺诈 2023-10-05 [1437]
Vision Pro划时代,Unity向左 oblox向右? 2023-06-28 [1843]
美籍华裔女商人隐瞒中国资产,面临近20万罚款 2023-05-25 [1686]
巴菲特2023致股东信(全文):展示“耐心投资者”的王冠与秘诀 2023-02-25 [781]
加拿大税务局全加拿大范围高薪招聘 年薪超10万 2022-12-12 [739]
美国国税局:明年调整纳税标准,40年来美国个人收入税最大减税调整! 2022-10-20 [5047]
相关栏目更多文章
最新图文:
:《2019全球肿瘤趋势报告》 :阿尔茨海默病预防与干预核心讯息图解 :引力波天文台或有助搜寻暗物质粒子 :Sail Through the Mist - SoCal Innovation Forum 2019(10/5) 游天龙:《唐人街》是如何炼成的:UCLA社会学教授周敏的学术之路 :“为什么海外华人那么爱国,但是让他回国却不愿意?...“ :学术出版巨头Elsevier 彻查433名审稿人“强迫引用”黑幕 :中国336个国家重点实验室布局
更多最新图文
更多《即时通讯》>>
 
打印本文章
 
您的名字:
电子邮件:
留言内容:
注意: 留言内容不要超过4000字,否则会被截断。
未 审 核:  是
  
关于我们联系我们申请加入后台管理设为主页加入收藏
美国华裔教授专家网版权所有,谢绝拷贝。如欲选登或发表,请与美国华裔教授专家网联系。
Copyright © 2024 ScholarsUpdate.com. All Rights Reserved.