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Boosting consumption

Which Chinese provinces splash their cash?

The misers and spendthrifts are surprising

促进消费

中国哪些省份挥金如土？

吝啬鬼与挥霍者的分布出人意料

splash sth splash out（on sth）ˌ（ BrE informal ）花大笔的钱（买某物等）

•We're going to splash out and buy a new car.我们打算挥霍一下，买辆新车。

spendthrift（disapproving）花钱无度的人；挥霍者

AT LAST CHINA’s government wants to ramp up domestic consumption. So far, there’s not much to show for it. Figures released on January 19th showed that GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven by buoyant exports. At about 4.2%, household consumption growth lagged GDP. “Who is actually still spending money?” asks a headline on a Chinese news site. The article shows a chart that has gone viral：Chinese provinces categorised into those that “dare” to consume, and those that are “happy”, “cautious” or “afraid” to do so, it suggests.

中国政府终于想要大力促进国内消费了。但截至目前，成效甚微。1月19日公布的数据显示，2025年GDP在出口繁荣的推动下增长了5%。而家庭消费增长率约为4.2%，落后于GDP增速。一家中国新闻网站的文章标题问道："到底谁还在花钱？" 文章展示了一张广为流传的图表：它将中国各省份分类为"敢于"消费、"乐于"消费、"谨慎"消费或"害怕"消费的地区。

buoyant（价格、商业活动等 ）看涨的；保持高价的；繁荣的

•a buoyant economy/market 繁荣的经济╱市场

•buoyant sales/prices 上升的销售额╱价格

It is true that spending habits differ vastly between regions. Heilongjiang, a frigid province in the north, has an average disposable income of 31,000 yuan（$4,453）per person and 75% of it is frittered away; people in snowy Tibet to the west make a similar amount, but just 61% of it is spent. Classifying regions into spendthrifts and misers is an attractive idea, especially since it could light the way for policies to lift consumer spending. To do that it is crucial to know what explains the differences and what could “vigorously boost consumption”, and where.

各地区之间的消费习惯确实存在巨大差异。位于北方的寒冷省份黑龙江，人均可支配收入为31,000元人民币（约合4,453美元），其中75%被挥霍掉；而西部多雪的西藏，人均收入相近，但只有61%被用于消费。将地区划分为"挥霍者"和"吝啬鬼"是个吸引人的想法，尤其是因为这可能为提升消费者支出的政策指明方向。要做到这一点，关键是要了解差异背后的原因，以及在哪里、通过什么方式能够"大力促进消费"。

fritter away浪费（时间或钱）

light the way for为……照亮道路

The Economist has made such an attempt. We first look at people’s willingness to splash out in each region. Chart 1 plots the share of income consumed against income. It shows an expected relationship：the more a province brings in, the less it spends as a proportion. What’s interesting, though, are deviations from that trend. Folk in Guangdong province consume 70% of their income, three percentage points more than if they had conformed to the trend. Accounting for its size, that means Guangdong contributes 174bn yuan more to national consumption than might be expected. Inhabitants of Shandong province spend underwhelmingly. They are to blame for dragging down national consumption by 327bn yuan.

《经济学人》进行了这样的尝试。我们首先考察了各地区人们的消费意愿。图表1绘制了消费收入占比与收入的关系。它显示了一个预期中的关系：一个省份的收入越高，其消费占收入的比例就越低。然而，有趣的是偏离这一趋势的情况。广东省居民消费了其收入的70%，比如果遵循趋势所应达到的水平高出三个百分点。考虑到其经济规模，这意味着广东对全国消费的贡献比预期多出1,740亿元人民币。山东省居民的消费则令人失望。他们拖累了全国消费，使之减少了3,270亿元人民币。

plot绘制

underwhelmingly令人失望地

drag down拖累；使下降

More pertinent, though, is what happens at the margins：how consumption varies in response to changes in income. Chart 2 plots this for the years 2023 to 2024, the latest available data. By this measure, Zhejiang, a coastal province, has been doing the heavy lifting for national consumption：of the 3,200-yuan increase in average income in 2024, it spent 2,900. The cosmopolitan Shanghainese, geographically just above Zhejiang, were relatively stingy. They gained 3,500 yuan in income, but then only consumed 200 yuan more. Guangdong and Shandong, previously the spending leader and laggard respectively, are both close to trend.

不过，更相关的是边际变化：消费如何随收入变化而变化。图表2根据2023年至2024年（可获得的最新数据）的数据绘制了这种关系。以此衡量，沿海省份浙江一直为全国消费承担着主要工作：在2024年人均收入增加的3,200元中，他们消费了2,900元。而地理位置紧邻浙江上方的国际化大都市上海人则相对吝啬。他们的收入增加了3,500元，但消费仅增加了200元。之前分别是消费引领者和落后者的广东和山东，其边际消费倾向都接近趋势线。

do the heavy lifting承担主要工作：指在某个项目或任务中承担大部分或最困难的工作。

stingy（ informal ）小气的；吝啬的SYN mean

laggard落后者

What determines this marginal zeal for splashing cash? The data suggest several factors are important. The higher the initial income, the lower the enthusiasm to consume any extra dollops of it. That makes sense—the wealthy Shanghainese already shell out a whopping 53,000 yuan each year on average. It follows that more urban provinces, with cities full of well-heeled types, also seem less inclined to fritter away extra income.

是什么决定了这种边际消费的热情？数据显示有几个重要因素。初始收入越高，对消费任何额外收入的热情就越低。这很合理——富有的上海人平均每年已经要支付高达53,000元。因此，城市化程度更高的省份，城市里满是富裕人群，似乎也更不愿意挥霍额外收入。

dollop（ informal ）少量；少许

shell out付（一大笔钱）

whopping（ ˈwhopping great ）[ only before noun]（ informal ）巨大的；很大的

well-heeled富有的

Other factors also matter. If a province contains many residents enrolled in unemployment insurance, marginal spending seems more appealing to them. Meanwhile, places with high dependency ratios—where each working adult has many other people to support—understandably see a lower propensity for extra splurging.

其他因素也很重要。如果一个省份有许多居民参加了失业保险，额外消费对他们似乎更具吸引力。同时，抚养比较高（即每个工作的成年人需要供养许多人）的地区，其额外挥霍的倾向较低，这是可以理解的。

dependency ratio依赖比率：指在劳动力中活跃的人数与15岁以下和64岁以上人数的比例。

propensity（for sth）~（for doing sth）~（to do sth）（ formal ）（行为方面的）倾向；习性SYN inclination

splurging n.挥霍

Our tentative analysis suggests where the Chinese authorities should focus to boost consumption：places where income levels are low and the share of the provincial population living in the countryside is high. It also supports other interventions, such as strengthening the social safety-net and easing the financial burdens involved with caring for children and the old.

我们初步的分析为中国当局指明了促进消费应关注的重点：收入水平低、农村人口比例高的地区。分析也支持其他干预措施，例如加强社会安全网，以及减轻育儿和养老方面的财务负担。

ease（使）宽慰；减轻；缓解SYN alleviate

Still, all that may not be enough for China to meet its GDP growth target for 2026, which will probably be near 5% again. That will put pressure on the authorities to step in. If governments could also be categorised, China’s might need to be one that “dares” to dole out stimulus. ■

尽管如此，所有这些可能仍不足以让中国实现其2026年很可能再次接近5%的GDP增长目标。这将给当局施加压力，要求其介入干预。如果政府也可以被分类，中国政府可能需要成为一个"敢于"发放刺激措施的政府。■

dole out发放，发给（食物、钱等）；施舍

注：中文翻译为机器翻译+人工修改，仅供参考。

文末小测

What is the main reason given in the article for why wealthy regions like Shanghai have a low marginal propensity to consume?

A）They face high unemployment rates.

B）They already have high basic consumption and prioritize saving/investing additional income.

C）They have a large rural population with low income.

D）Their income growth has been very slow.

正确答案：B

THE END