“美国经济真的在走下坡路吗？事实可能让你大吃一惊。

尽管全球经济多次动荡，美国却连续三十年超越其他发达国家。

如今，美国的经济产出比西欧高出40%，比日本高出60%。

究竟是什么让美国在全球范围内脱颖而出？本文将为你揭秘这股不可忽视的经济力量。”

本期文章结构：

1. 美国经济的逆袭与崛起

1990年代初，许多人担心美国经济将落后于其他工业国家，尤其是日本和欧洲。然而，事实证明美国不仅没有衰退，反而通过互联网革命经历了繁荣。今天，尽管有类似的担忧，尤其是面对中国的快速崛起，美国经济依然保持领先地位。

2. 经济波动中的持续领先

虽然美国经济经历了互联网泡沫破裂、全球金融危机和疫情冲击等挑战，但自1990年代以来，美国的经济增长速度始终超过其他发达国家。与其他G7国家相比，美国不仅经济增长更快，还在多次危机中展现出更强的反弹能力。

3. 全球影响力的巩固

美元的强势进一步巩固了美国在全球的经济影响力。尽管曾有分析预测中国将超越美国成为全球最大经济体，但近年来中国与美国的经济差距反而扩大，这使得美国在全球经济中保持主导地位。

4. 政策与资源的双重优势

美国的地理优势和政策选择是其经济持续增长的重要因素。美国不仅拥有世界上最深的金融市场，还通过技术进步成为全球最大的石油和天然气生产国。再加上宽松的商业监管政策，美国的高科技企业得以快速崛起，推动了整体经济的强劲表现。

Special report（全文1388字）

The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust
美国经济远远甩开了其他富裕国家

Expect that to continue
预计这种趋势将继续

“ON PRESENT policies and performance, the United States is condemned to slower growth than the other main industrial countries for the foreseeable future.” So declared the Competitiveness Policy Council, a committee advising America’s president and Congress, in 1992, a time when America was gripped by concerns that its economy was declining and losing ground to Japan and Europe. The opposite turned out to be true. Japan entered a long period of stagnation, Europe’s growth fizzled and America experienced a mini-boom, fuelled by the rise of the internet.

“按照当前的政策和表现，美国将在可预见的未来比其他主要工业国家增长更慢。”这是1992年竞争力政策委员会的宣言，该委员会向美国总统和国会提供建议。当时，美国笼罩在经济衰退的担忧中，认为其经济正在失去优势，落后于日本和欧洲。然而，事实恰恰相反。日本陷入了长期停滞，欧洲的增长乏力，而美国则因互联网的崛起而经历了一场小型经济繁荣。

More than three decades later, some are again painting pictures of an American economy heading towards decline. China is now the rising juggernaut in the East. Donald Trump, instead of Bill Clinton, is the candidate for president lamenting the state of the economy（Mr Trump says it is “failing”, where Mr Clinton called it an “unpleasant economy stuck somewhere between Germany and Sri Lanka”）. Ordinary Americans are anxious. Gallup, a polling firm, regularly asks Americans if they are satisfied with how things are going. From 1980 until the early 2000s, a little more than 40%, on average, said they were. Over the past two decades that has dropped to 25%.

三十多年后，有些人再次描绘出美国经济走向衰退的图景。如今，中国已成为东部崛起的巨头。唐纳德·特朗普而非比尔·克林顿是总统候选人，对经济现状表示哀叹（特朗普称其为“失败”，而克林顿称其为“令人不快的经济，徘徊在德国与斯里兰卡之间”）。普通美国人也感到焦虑。盖洛普（Gallup）民意调查公司定期询问美国人是否对现状满意。从1980年到2000年初，平均有40%以上的人表示满意。而过去二十年，这一比例下降到了25%。

Are the prophets of decline onto something this time? Since the rollicking 1990s the American economy has suffered occasional upheavals, including the dot-com bust, the global financial crisis, a spike in unemployment during the covid-19 pandemic and, most recently, a surge in inflation. In purchasing-power-parity（PPP）terms America’s share of the global economy has indeed shrunk, from 21% in 1990 to 16% now.

这次衰退的预言家有依据吗？自1990年代的蓬勃发展以来，美国经济经历了多次动荡，包括互联网泡沫破灭、全球金融危机、新冠疫情期间的失业激增，最近则是通货膨胀激增。从购买力平价（PPP）来看，美国在全球经济中的份额确实从1990年的21%下降到了现在的16%。

America’s outperformance has accelerated recently

美国的优异表现最近进一步加速了

But one thing has been consistent since the early 1990s：America has grown faster than other big rich countries, and it has rebounded more strongly from bumps along the way. The faulty diagnosis of the competitiveness council back in 1992 should stand as a corrective for those now peddling gloom. America’s growth since then has been best-in-class, and its strengths today give grounds for optimism about the country’s economic power and potential. That America’s share of global GDP in PPP terms has decreased is less a comment on its own trajectory than on the growth spurts of the two most populous countries, China and India. China’s output per person remains less than a third of America’s; India’s is smaller still.

然而，自1990年代初以来，有一件事一直保持不变：美国的经济增长速度超过了其他大型富裕国家，并且在遇到挫折时反弹更强劲。1992年竞争力委员会错误的诊断应该成为现在那些渲染悲观情绪的人的警示。自那时以来，美国的增长表现始终处于最佳水平，而其今天的实力为对其经济力量和潜力保持乐观提供了依据。美国在全球GDP中的份额下降，更多地反映了中国和印度这两个人口最多国家的快速增长。中国的人均产出仍然不到美国的三分之一，印度则更小。

Chart：The Economist
Even more striking is how America has outperformed its peers among the mature economies. In 1990 America accounted for about two-fifths of the overallGDP of the G7 group of advanced countries; today it is up to about half（see chart）. On a per-person basis, American economic output is now about 40% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—roughly twice as large as the gaps between them in 1990. Average wages in America’s poorest state, Mississippi, are higher than the averages in Britain, Canada and Germany.

更为显著的是，美国相较于其他成熟经济体的表现。1990年，美国在G7发达国家总GDP中的占比约为五分之二；如今这一比例上升到了大约一半（见图表）。按人均计算，美国的经济产出现在比西欧和加拿大高出约40%，比日本高出60%——与1990年相比，这些差距大约翻了一倍。美国最贫穷的州密西西比州的平均工资比英国、加拿大和德国的平均工资还要高。

And America’s outperformance has accelerated recently. Since the start of 2020, just before the covid-19 pandemic, America’s real growth has been 10%, three times the average for the rest of theG7 countries. Among the G20 group, which includes large emerging markets, America is the only one whose output and employment are above pre-pandemic expectations, according to the International Monetary Fund.

最近，美国的优异表现进一步加速。自2020年初疫情爆发以来，美国的实际增长率为10%，是其他G7国家平均水平的三倍。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，在G20集团中，美国是唯一一个产出和就业高于疫情前预期的国家。

Coupling this growth with the dollar’s strength translates into heft for America and wealth for Americans. That can be seen in the huge numbers of Americans travelling and spending record sums overseas. A decade ago（as Chinese travellers too were demonstrating their wealth）many analysts thought that China would, by now, have overtaken America as the world’s biggest economy at current exchange rates. Instead itsGDP has been slipping of late, from about 75% of America’s in 2021 to 65% now.

这种增长与美元的强势相结合，意味着美国在国际舞台上的影响力和美国人的财富增加。可以从大量美国人出国旅行并在海外消费创纪录的数字中看出这一点。十年前（当时中国游客也在展示他们的财富），许多分析师认为中国现在会在现行汇率下超越美国，成为世界最大的经济体。然而，事实上，中国的GDP从2021年的约为美国的75%下降到了现在的65%。

Endowed with gifts

天赐的礼物

This special report will explain why American growth has been so strong for so long, and why it can be expected to continue. Some of the reasons are down to the good fortune bestowed by geography. As a quasi-continental economy with a giant consumer market, American companies benefit from scale：a good idea hatched in California or product built in Michigan can, in short order, spread to 49 other states. America also has a big, well-integrated labour market, allowing people to move to better-paying jobs and drawing workers to more productive sectors. A long, porous southern border may be politically contentious but it has been an economic tailwind, allowing the labour force to steadily grow and helping to fill the hard, dirty jobs that many native-born Americans have no interest in doing. And as important as the size of the country is what lies beneath it. Over the past two decades the improvements in techniques for extracting hydrocarbons from once-unpliant shale rocks have turned America into the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas.

本专题报告将解释为什么美国的增长如此强劲，并且这种趋势可以预期会持续下去。部分原因归功于地理上的优势。作为一个准大陆型经济体，拥有庞大的消费市场，美国公司能够从规模中获益：在加利福尼亚酝酿的好点子或在密歇根生产的产品可以迅速传播到其他49个州。美国还拥有一个大型且高度一体化的劳动力市场，能够让人们迁往薪资更高的岗位，并吸引劳动力进入生产力更高的行业。南部边界长期存在的孔洞虽然在政治上备受争议，但在经济上却是一股顺风，推动劳动力持续增长，并帮助填补了许多本地出生的美国人不愿意从事的艰苦肮脏的工作。而与国家规模同样重要的是它所蕴藏的资源。过去二十年，利用技术从坚硬的页岩中提取碳氢化合物的进步，使美国成为世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国。

The American economy also has particular strong points which have bred more strength. Possessing the world’s deepest financial markets has made it easier for startups to raise equity, a better way to get off the ground than borrowing cash. The plethora of exciting young companies in America has, in turn, boosted the attractiveness of its markets. Similarly, having the world’s dominant currency has made global commerce more frictionless for American business. And America has the world’s best universities, which remain so in part by attracting the world’s best students.

美国经济还有一些独特的优势，这些优势进一步带来了更多的优势。拥有全球最深的金融市场使初创企业更容易筹集股权资金——这是一种比借款更好的起步方式。美国众多充满活力的年轻公司反过来也提升了市场的吸引力。同样，拥有全球主导货币使得美国企业在全球商业中的摩擦减少。美国还拥有世界上最好的大学，部分原因是它们吸引了世界上最优秀的学生。

The visible hand

看不见的手

Other policy choices have helped. America has a more relaxed approach to business regulation than many other countries. That has given high-tech companies room to play and grow. It also enabled the experimentation which led to the shale revolution. But America’s success is not just a story of small government. Officials have made bold, resolute interventions during crises（including ones that, in fairness, were abetted or exacerbated by lax regulation to begin with）. After a shaky start, America delivered a strong response to the global financial crisis of 2007-09, acting decisively to clean up bank balance-sheets, and making aggressive use of monetary policy to support growth. The government’s response to the covid slowdown was yet more extraordinary, with a suite of fiscal stimulus packages that left other countries in the dust. Indeed, officials overdid it in their pursuit of a recovery, contributing to the global rise in inflation. But it is impossible to explain America’s mighty economic engine without acknowledging the government’s willingness to step on the accelerator pedal when it has sputtered.

其他政策选择也起到了帮助作用。与许多其他国家相比，美国对商业监管的态度更加宽松。这给了高科技公司充分的空间进行探索和成长。这种宽松的监管环境也促成了页岩革命的诞生。然而，美国的成功不仅仅是小政府的故事。官员们在危机期间采取了大胆果断的干预措施（包括那些公平地说是因放松监管而助长或加剧的危机）。在全球金融危机期间，美国在起步不稳的情况下果断清理了银行资产负债表，并积极使用货币政策支持增长。政府对疫情经济放缓的应对更是非同凡响，推出了一系列财政刺激方案，使其他国家望尘莫及。事实上，美国在追求经济复苏的过程中做得过头了，导致全球通胀上升。然而，要解释美国强大的经济引擎，就必须承认政府在经济熄火时愿意踩油门的事实。

For all of America’s prowess, it has plenty of maladies. A fundamental test of any country’s governance is whether its people live good, long lives. On this count America is wanting. In 2023the life expectancy for a newborn American was 79, three years shorter than the average in western Europe, according to UN projections. That startling gap was virtually nonexistent in 1980. This is largely a reflection of fewer Americans reaching their dotage owing to obesity and to particularly acute American problems like opioids, guns and unsafe roads. But older Americans fare badly in relative terms, too. In 2023 in America the average 60-year-old was projected to live another 24 years, nearly one year shorter than in Europe. In 1980 the reverse was true; older Americans were projected to outlive their European peers by almost a year.

尽管美国实力强大，但也有许多问题。衡量一个国家治理水平的基本标准是其国民是否生活得好且长。在这方面，美国做得不够好。根据联合国的预测，2023年美国新生儿的预期寿命为79岁，比西欧的平均寿命短了3年。这个惊人的差距在1980年几乎不存在。这主要是因为肥胖以及美国特有的严重问题如阿片类药物、枪支和不安全的道路，导致更多的美国人未能活到老年。但美国老年人的表现也相对较差。2023年，在美国，平均60岁的人的预期寿命为24年，比欧洲人少近一年。而在1980年，情况恰恰相反；美国老年人的预期寿命比欧洲同龄人多近一年。

Many critics of America’s economic model contend that it is intrinsically flawed, beset by extreme inequality and ever-more dominant companies crushing competitors.But these are exaggerations. There may be scope for a fairer distribution of the country’s wealth without undermining America’s growth, but the widely held belief that the top 1% are taking it all is overdone. As for tech behemoths such as Apple and Amazon, their potential for dominance must be watched and, if necessary, curtailed, but it is also true that they have generated incredible value in daily life and shaken up stodgy industries. And they face fierce competition to stay on top. They stand as evidence more of America’s economic success than of its problems.

许多批评者认为美国的经济模式存在根本缺陷，充斥着极端的不平等，大公司越来越主导市场，压垮了竞争对手。但这些说法有些夸大。或许在不削弱美国增长的情况下可以实现更公平的财富分配，但广泛流行的“1%的人占据了所有财富”的观点有些过火。至于苹果和亚马逊等科技巨头，它们的潜在垄断力量确实需要被监控并在必要时加以限制，但它们在日常生活中创造了巨大的价值，并颠覆了僵化的行业。它们面临着激烈的竞争，必须努力保持领先地位。它们更多是美国经济成功的证据，而不是问题。

In the history of modern economics America’s three-decade outperformance is remarkable. Can it continue? Throughout this report we will consider reasons for pessimism, from poisonous politics to fiscal frailties. Set against these is a relentless dynamism, the essential characteristic of the American economy and the ultimate force propelling it forward.■

在现代经济学史上，美国三十年的超常表现是值得注意的。它能继续吗？本报告将探讨从有害的政治到财政脆弱性的悲观理由。与这些理由相对的是美国经济的持续活力，这种活力是美国经济的本质特征，也是推动它前进的最终力量。